Originally posted by TheRedSon:
He might be close to finishing it. Then again, how long was he "close" to finishing DWD? Three years? Four years?
I'm just optimistically speculating. Here is my line of thinking.
-He has admitted that he had to cut 4 (possibly more) chapters out of DWD due to the book being too thick for binding. Those chapters were bumped to this book, and focused on the Battle for Winterfell and Battle for Mereen. He has dropped hints that they may have also included the Battle for Storm's End (involving Jon Connington).
-He has already released about 12 chapters of WoW to whet the appetites of his readers. I have not read all of them, but I think that only 1 of them (a Theon chapter) would fall under the group of chapters cut from DWD, assuming he is being honest about what was cut out.
-I figure that, as we get closer to the end of the series, the writing should become somewhat easier. He knows where the main characters are going to end up and is becoming limited as to options for getting them to those points from where they were at the end of book 5. He doesn't have to think as much about each character's story and how he can make their story interesting, because it has to tie in to the endgame. For example, he knows that Arya needs to get back to Westeros (most likely) before the series ends. Therefore, he isn't free to allow her to have too many more adventures in the free cities.
-He is constantly under pressure from fans, and from HBO beating him to the punch, and may be inclined to work a bit faster than he has in the past. July of 2015 will mark 4 years since DWD was released. None of his novels have been published with more than 6 years between them. The average is 3 years. The average between 3-4 and 4-5 was 5.5 years.
With all that said, there are 2 caveats that worry me.
1). GRRM is a jackass and seems to become more cantankerous the more he is criticized. I could see him taking 7 years between books just because the criticism pisses him off.
2). It seems pretty clear that HBO will finish the story before him at this point. Therefore, he may feel the need to re-write the endgame in order to keep book sales high. If he doesn't know how the story ends, and the original planned ending is off the table, writing the last 2 (or 3) books would likely be more difficult, rather than easier.