Not sure how many have a free hour to watch but I found this interesting. No idea how accurate all his projections will be but it seems like it's right around the corner.
Future of Energy and Transportation
- Thread starter Inky29
- Start date
By 2030 he says solar will be 100% of the world's energy generation.
Don't buy that at all.
Don't buy that at all.
Ya that’s a negative. But it will be the future. But nowhere near that early.
Not sure if it will happen as quickly as he says but I'm ready to stop having to drive the 25 miles to work and just letting my car take care of everything.
I took some of what he said with a grain of salt considering the group he was presenting too, kind of like our coaches our AD talking at a Cowboy Caravan. I'm sure he probably believes what he says but I'm fairly sure the tone might be different at a different event.
However I do think he's right, individual solar is getting closer and closer to being financially viable on a mass stage and when that happens change will happen quickly.
I took some of what he said with a grain of salt considering the group he was presenting too, kind of like our coaches our AD talking at a Cowboy Caravan. I'm sure he probably believes what he says but I'm fairly sure the tone might be different at a different event.
However I do think he's right, individual solar is getting closer and closer to being financially viable on a mass stage and when that happens change will happen quickly.
On the surface, it seems crazy. But, that is the whole point of his lecture. Once things hit a tipping point, change is going to happen at an exponential rate.
Of course there will always be exceptions. Solar won’t be viable in the far north or far south. And there will be third world countries that lag behind by a decade or more. So 100% probably never happens.
Guess which company just set the efficiency record for organic solar cells?
http://investor.phillips66.com/fina...in-Organic-Solar-Cell-Efficiency/default.aspx
HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) has successfully set a new world record in power conversion efficiency for polymer-based single junction organic photovoltaic (OPV) cells. The 11.84 percent efficiency was certified by Newport Corporation, a recognized center for independent verification of solar cell results under standard testing conditions.
The solar cells are based on proprietary state-of-the-art polymers and interfacial layers, which have been developed by Phillips 66. The advantaged technology can be printed using low-cost roll-to-roll manufacturing processes. The organic solar cells do not contain hazardous components, such as lead or cadmium, unlike some other types of thin film technologies.
“This breakthrough in efficiency brings us closer to the possibility of commercializing this promising form of solar technology,” said Merl Lindstrom, vice president of Technology at Phillips 66. “Continuing to increase the ability of OPV cells to convert power with high efficiency will one day make this energy source more affordable for the consumer.”
OPV technology enables the development of flexible, lightweight and transparent solar modules that can be manufactured at a low cost. The Phillips 66 materials provide the potential for cost-effective renewable electricity generation on par with conventional energy technologies.
http://investor.phillips66.com/fina...in-Organic-Solar-Cell-Efficiency/default.aspx
HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) has successfully set a new world record in power conversion efficiency for polymer-based single junction organic photovoltaic (OPV) cells. The 11.84 percent efficiency was certified by Newport Corporation, a recognized center for independent verification of solar cell results under standard testing conditions.
The solar cells are based on proprietary state-of-the-art polymers and interfacial layers, which have been developed by Phillips 66. The advantaged technology can be printed using low-cost roll-to-roll manufacturing processes. The organic solar cells do not contain hazardous components, such as lead or cadmium, unlike some other types of thin film technologies.
“This breakthrough in efficiency brings us closer to the possibility of commercializing this promising form of solar technology,” said Merl Lindstrom, vice president of Technology at Phillips 66. “Continuing to increase the ability of OPV cells to convert power with high efficiency will one day make this energy source more affordable for the consumer.”
OPV technology enables the development of flexible, lightweight and transparent solar modules that can be manufactured at a low cost. The Phillips 66 materials provide the potential for cost-effective renewable electricity generation on par with conventional energy technologies.
We are an energy company. Right now our focus is on fossil fuels. But if that evolves to nuclear, solar, wind, or whatever else comes that we can profit from; we are in.
Did not watch but if he said that he must be pushing an agenda. Oil and Gas are not going away by then. Of course renewables will play a part, but 100% solar by 2030 is crazy?
You might want to take the time to watch. What he says is pretty interesting.
Let's say he is off by a few years. Maybe close to 100% by 2035?
Of course, the O & G industry will fight the transition tooth and nail, so that might slow things down quite a bit.
I don't know if his predictions are accurate, but he is not just pulling numbers out of his ass. It is all about improved technology and economics.
Can you imagine a company still using typewriters today? Why not? Because they are completely obsolete due to technological advances, computing, etc. He is pointing out that the same thing is going to happen with the Internal Combustion Engine, etc.
How? If the economics are there; then there is no 'fighting it'.
The O&G companies will just transition to other energy producers. We are already working on other ideas at our research facility.
More efficient solar
Switch grass for bio
Algae for bio
And you still need feedstock for plastics and other manufacturing needs. Oil and Natural gas isn't going anywhere for a LONG time.
Makes me think of a Patagonia catalogue i saw once. They’re very anti-big oil and said so in the catalogue, yet the only thing in the catalogue that didn’t involve some hydrocarbon material was a pair of wool socks.
Example: Lobbying to prevent certain tech companies from getting tax breaks that would allow for quicker development/growth of their facilities.
The O&G companies are very powerful. They are not going to just roll over and lay down. As you say, they are transitioning to other sources of energy production, but it will take them time to get to where they want to be and they will have a lot of competition. It might benefit them to slow the process as long as possible.
Yeah, that's my thoughts as well. People never seem to realize that damn near everything you use is derived from a petroleum product. These companies aren't going away.
I think you underestimate their power. What they can accomplish should be pretty clear from the whole climate change debate and the U.S. actions since Trump became president. I don't want to turn this thread into a political debate, so I will leave it at that (even if you disagree).
As solar and other alternative energy sources become more affordable and more pervasive, that will drive DOWN the price of petroleum based energy. That increases demand for oil and gas, ceteris paribus.
What it all portends say 12-15-20 years down the road is significantly cheaper energy costs for consumers, particularly if government would stay the **** out of the way.
What it all portends say 12-15-20 years down the road is significantly cheaper energy costs for consumers, particularly if government would stay the **** out of the way.
I hope Tesla solar and other green energy companies can continue to drive research and innovation unfettered from O&G lobbying and government bias. O&G will work at a different pace versus non-traditional new tech energy companies that have no fossil fuel revenue and will want to prove-in next-gen tech more quickly.
We've generated over 10,000 kWh via our new solar system so far this year....it's pretty cool to see pure, abundant, clean energy being generated by a home rather than simply a consumer of it.
With cost-neutral lease options to deploy solar en masse, it has the chance to really scale signficantly from current adoption and make a profound impact.
We've generated over 10,000 kWh via our new solar system so far this year....it's pretty cool to see pure, abundant, clean energy being generated by a home rather than simply a consumer of it.
With cost-neutral lease options to deploy solar en masse, it has the chance to really scale signficantly from current adoption and make a profound impact.
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Solar is the future. No denying that. But the electrical grid is a lot more complicated than just solar. Yes residential may start to move to solar sooner but you have diverse loads like industrial and voltage support of the grid.
SolarCity (now Tesla Solar, the largest solar installation company in the world today) is now offering lease options rather than the traditional up front purchase which limits most from giving it serious consideration. They design and install the system and you sign a loan with monthly payments instead of your monthly electric bill. Worst case you can install solar and not pay a penny more than you are today for electric (and increase the value of the house and generate clean energy) or you can go ahead and purchase up front and recoup the monthly electric savings.
We initially did the loan (would rather pay for solar panels than a utility company) but we then decided just to purchase the system outright. Local and federal tax incentives cut down the cost significantly. But the loan program is a game changer to allow virtually anyone to install solar at zero up front and typically zero additional cost than what you’re already paying.
https://www.tesla.com/support/energy/learn/solar-panels/cost-and-payment-options
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This is a great point. What all of this means is cheaper energy in the next 10-20 years.
Tesla is also making great progress on their storage systems. The price is being cut in half every year.
