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Fire Ford, hire Gottlieb, and here's why...

OSU_Sports_Nut

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After this season, Travis Ford has 3 years remaining on his contract and his buyout is in excess of $7,000,000. He can recruit, but he isn't a very good coach. He always finds a way to lose close games. Good coaches find ways to win close games. Due to the $7MM buyout, I do not believe oSu could afford any "known" coach out there (i.e. like a Gregg Marshall). Therefore, why not give Doug Gottlieb a chance with a 3 year contract and let him prove himself? We already know what Travis Ford brings to the table and it isn't good. Paying Gottlieb $250,000 base contact over 3 years will give oSu a chance to save money on the huge buyout for Travis Ford. During this time, Doug will have the chance to show what he can do. At the end of the 3 years, oSu will be in a better position financially. Then oSu can decide to give Doug a contract extension or begin a national search for the best candidate. Below are characteristics of good, great, and exceptional coaches. Let’s take a look at Ford and Gottlieb in each of these areas.

A GOOD coach at any level knows the X's and O's of the game, can teach fundamentals to the players, can setup and create organized and purposeful practices to make each player better, sets high standards for the team and holds all players accountable, is firm and consistent with team discipline, set roles for each player and gets them to accept and flourish in their role on the team. Ford doesn't do any of these things well. And this is basic Coaching 101 stuff. However, I believe Doug will have characteristics because he played under Sutton and when you listen to him on the radio you can tell he knows his X's and O's.

A GREAT coach can do all the things mentioned above, plus be a great recruiter and motivator. The problem with Ford is he only knows how to recruit and might know a little bit about motivating players. However, he never learned the basics of GOOD coaching. In addition, a great coach knows exactly what he wants to mention to his team during a timeout (whether he called a timeout or not). Ford looks lost during most timeouts. The coaches who do not have a clue what to say to their team during a timeout will typically waste their time yelling at the refs or find other ways to waste time, instead of using every precious second to work on explaining any in-game strategy during a timeout. Coaches always have the option to yell at the refs during the rest of the game, so it doesn't make any sense to yell at the refs during a timeout when they have the opportunity to talk with their players. And finally, the best indicator of a great coach is watching their team in the final minutes of a close game. A great coach will have his team well versed on what to do if they are down by 2 or more, know what to do if they are up or down with fouls to give, know when to strategically call timeouts, know who and when to substitute players on offense and defense, know when and who to foul if needed (by leaving the worst free throw shooter open to catch the inbounds pass, then fouling them as soon as they touch the ball or even better doing this without any time running off the clock and without getting a technical foul). Calvin Sampson (like him or not as a person) was great at doing this and was one of the hardest coaches to win against in the final minutes of a game. He was a great coach and was selected to help coach multiple USA basketball teams, was selected as the "Coach of the Year" at least 2x in college, coached in the NBA, and is now the head coach at Houston (he will turn that program into a winner). His negatives had nothing to do with coaching, but everything to do with recruiting violations.

EXCEPTIONAL coaches are rare. These coaches are rare because they can do all of the GOOD and GREAT things mentioned above, but also invest time teaching boys how to become men. This is done by taking time to teach players lessons (even at the expense of winning) on being respectful, hardworking, and men of good character (morals & ethics). This is what made Coach Sutton special.

Ford has a long history of making poor decisions (or for NOT making important strategic decisions during a game) and this is incredibly apparent in the last few minutes of close games. This is one of MANY reasons why Ford must be fired at the end of this season. Personally, I would love to see Doug Gottlieb take the reins. He knows the strategy of the game (which comes from being an analyst and having to breakdown basketball games for a living). That alone would make him a better coach than Ford (at the very least). Doug also has an incredible basketball IQ and historical knowledge of the game (which was evident during interviews when he was a player at OSU). I think Doug would be a great ambassador for our basketball program and for the university because he is very personable, well-spoken, articulate, and very connected. He is also a very recognizable/famous public figure (which will only help him in recruiting - not to mention his many connections and how recruits prefer younger coaches because they can relate better). I believe Doug will be the best recruiter OSU has ever seen. If you add up all of these qualities, I think Doug would eventually become a GREAT basketball coach. However, probably the only way Doug would ever be given a chance is if Holder could get him to accept a very low salary (maybe between $250,000-$350,000 a year) over a 3 year contract with specific incentives to push his salary to $2-3 million based on NCAA tournament wins. This would be a small pay cut for Doug, but it could also be a huge pay raise if he is successful. In addition, it would allow OSU to justify his hire due to his lack of coaching experience and save OSU money to buyout Ford's remaining contract. Plus this type of move would be less risky for Holder (smaller salary & shorter contract) and it would allow Doug to prove his worth (as a first time head coach at a big-time division I program like OSU without any prior coaching experience). This would also help Holder reunite a fan base that has been severely fractured after the Sutton family left OSU. I think Doug would be the perfect hire to help bring back former OSU players. In my opinion, this type of scenario is the only way OSU fans will see a head coaching change next year. Plus Doug might be able to convince Brooks Thompson to be an assistant coach on his staff, which might help ease the fears of some fans & Holder.

A lot of people will talk about Doug’s lack of coaching, but what about Fred Hoiberg for Iowa State? Before he became the head coach for Iowa State, he had never been a head coach and now is the head coach with the Chicago Bulls. Maybe a better comparison for Doug Gottlieb is Steve Kerr. He was a color commentator for TNT from 2010 until he was made a head coach of the Golden State Warriors in 2014 where he led his team to an NBA championship in his rookie year. I say give Doug the job. Yes, it's a risk but not as risky as most people think and his upside is tremendous. His experience as an analyst and being under Sutton along with being a son of a former coach put him on the same level as other coaches with limited division 1 head coaching experience. In addition, I believe Doug's going to be one of the best recruiters OSU has ever seen because of his exposure as a national media member. Plus the excitement of his hiring alone will bring back fans into GIA. And finally, since it is a risk on OSU's part (and Doug knows this) they could structure a very incentive laden contract where he makes $250,000 a year unless he meets certain goals where he could make up to a few million. These are my thoughts, but what do you think? What should OSU do at the end of this season with Ford?
 
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After this season, Travis Ford has 3 years remaining on his contract and his buyout is in excess of $7,000,000. He can recruit, but he isn't a very good coach. He always finds a way to lose close games. Good coaches find ways to win close games. Due to the $7MM buyout, I do not believe oSu could afford any "known" coach out there (i.e. like a Gregg Marshall). Therefore, why not give Doug Gottlieb a chance with a 3 year contract and let him prove himself? We already know what Travis Ford brings to the table and it isn't good. Paying Gottlieb $250,000 base contact over 3 years will give oSu a chance to save money on the huge buyout for Travis Ford. During this time, Doug will have the chance to show what he can do. At the end of the 3 years, oSu will be in a better position financially. Then oSu can decide to give Doug a contract extension or begin a national search for the best candidate. Below are characteristics of good, great, and exceptional coaches. Let’s take a look at Ford and Gottlieb in each of these areas.

A GOOD coach at any level knows the X's and O's of the game, can teach fundamentals to the players, can setup and create organized and purposeful practices to make each player better, sets high standards for the team and holds all players accountable, is firm and consistent with team discipline, set roles for each player and gets them to accept and flourish in their role on the team. Ford doesn't do any of these things well. And this is basic Coaching 101 stuff. However, I believe Doug will have characteristics because he played under Sutton and when you listen to him on the radio you can tell he knows his X's and O's.

A GREAT coach can do all the things mentioned above, plus be a great recruiter and motivator. The problem with Ford is he only knows how to recruit and might know a little bit about motivating players. However, he never learned the basics of GOOD coaching. In addition, a great coach knows exactly what he wants to mention to his team during a timeout (whether he called a timeout or not). Ford looks lost during most timeouts. The coaches who do not have a clue what to say to their team during a timeout will typically waste their time yelling at the refs or find other ways to waste time, instead of using every precious second to work on explaining any in-game strategy during a timeout. Coaches always have the option to yell at the refs during the rest of the game, so it doesn't make any sense to yell at the refs during a timeout when they have the opportunity to talk with their players. And finally, the best indicator of a great coach is watching their team in the final minutes of a close game. A great coach will have his team well versed on what to do if they are down by 2 or more, know what to do if they are up or down with fouls to give, know when to strategically call timeouts, know who and when to substitute players on offense and defense, know when and who to foul if needed (by leaving the worst free throw shooter open to catch the inbounds pass, then fouling them as soon as they touch the ball or even better doing this without any time running off the clock and without getting a technical foul). Calvin Sampson (like him or not as a person) was great at doing this and was one of the hardest coaches to win against in the final minutes of a game. He was a great coach and was selected to help coach multiple USA basketball teams, was selected as the "Coach of the Year" at least 2x in college, coached in the NBA, and is now the head coach at Houston (he will turn that program into a winner). His negatives had nothing to do with coaching, but everything to do with recruiting violations.

EXCEPTIONAL coaches are rare. These coaches are rare because they can do all of the GOOD and GREAT things mentioned above, but also invest time teaching boys how to become men. This is done by taking time to teach players lessons (even at the expense of winning) on being respectful, hardworking, and men of good character (morals & ethics). This is what made Coach Sutton special.

Ford has a long history of making poor decisions (or for NOT making important strategic decisions during a game) and this is incredibly apparent in the last few minutes of close games. This is one of MANY reasons why Ford must be fired at the end of this season. Personally, I would love to see Doug Gottlieb take the reins. He knows the strategy of the game (which comes from being an analyst and having to breakdown basketball games for a living). That alone would make him a better coach than Ford (at the very least). Doug also has an incredible basketball IQ and historical knowledge of the game (which was evident during interviews when he was a player at OSU). I think Doug would be a great ambassador for our basketball program and for the university because he is very personable, well-spoken, articulate, and very connected. He is also a very recognizable/famous public figure (which will only help him in recruiting - not to mention his many connections and how recruits prefer younger coaches because they can relate better). I believe Doug will be the best recruiter OSU has ever seen. If you add up all of these qualities, I think Doug would eventually become a GREAT basketball coach. However, probably the only way Doug would ever be given a chance is if Holder could get him to accept a very low salary (maybe between $250,000-$350,000 a year) over a 3 year contract with specific incentives to push his salary to $2-3 million based on NCAA tournament wins. This would be a small pay cut for Doug, but it could also be a huge pay raise if he is successful. In addition, it would allow OSU to justify his hire due to his lack of coaching experience and save OSU money to buyout Ford's remaining contract. Plus this type of move would be less risky for Holder (smaller salary & shorter contract) and it would allow Doug to prove his worth (as a first time head coach at a big-time division I program like OSU without any prior coaching experience). This would also help Holder reunite a fan base that has been severely fractured after the Sutton family left OSU. I think Doug would be the perfect hire to help bring back former OSU players. In my opinion, this type of scenario is the only way OSU fans will see a head coaching change next year. Plus Doug might be able to convince Brooks Thompson to be an assistant coach on his staff, which might help ease the fears of some fans & Holder.

A lot of people will talk about Doug’s lack of coaching, but what about Fred Hoiberg for Iowa State? Before he became the head coach for Iowa State, he had never been a head coach and now is the head coach with the Chicago Bulls. Maybe a better comparison for Doug Gottlieb is Steve Kerr. He was a color commentator for TNT from 2010 until he was made a head coach of the Golden State Warriors in 2014 where he led his team to an NBA championship in his rookie year. I say give Doug the job. Yes, it's a risk but not as risky as most people think and his upside is tremendous. His experience as an analyst and being under Sutton along with being a son of a former coach put him on the same level as other coaches with limited division 1 head coaching experience. In addition, I believe Doug's going to be one of the best recruiters OSU has ever seen because of his exposure as a national media member. Plus the excitement of his hiring alone will bring back fans into GIA. And finally, since it is a risk on OSU's part (and Doug knows this) they could structure a very incentive laden contract where he makes $250,000 a year unless he meets certain goals where he could make up to a few million. These are my thoughts, but what do you think? What should OSU do at the end of this season with Ford?

I applaud your effort.
 
Although we did not hire Gottlieb, I'm very happy and excited about coach Underwood.
This may or may not surprise some of you, but Brad Underwood is a GREAT coach (or an elite coach according some metrics/analytics data I complied). A few days ago I went to this NCAA site to compare a bunch statistics on division 1 basketball teams. Then I created a very intricate Excel spreadsheet using team and conference statistics to more accurately predict wins/losses in the NCAA tournament. For the 2014-15 tournament, my spreadsheet accurately predicted many upsets and was 86% accurate for all of the games. It accurately predicted all Great 8 teams and 3 of the 4 Final Four teams by giving me more accurate seeding information. Anyways, after looking over this data something started to really stand out in the data. For example, EVERY team from last year (2014-15 Tournament) that advanced to the Final Four had 4 data points in common. All of these teams placed in the top 50 in the following 4 categories (Assist Turnover Ratio, Field-Goal Percentage, Rebound Margin, and Scoring Margin).

In other words, only the very successful teams scored well in these 4 categories. It was the only thing they all had in common, so I determined it must be some type of indicator/recipe for success. Here is where these stats got my attention regarding coaching. These statics help to show which teams are well disciplined and well coached. For example, a coach that doesn't hold players accountable and doesn't teach them the right thing to do with the ball will come down the court and jack up shots and miss more than they make. Teams like that will not have a very good field goal percentage and can be very inconsistent when it comes to winning games (i.e. Travis Ford teams). Also, if a team is playing reckless and out of control the teams assist to turnover ratio will not be very good and that team will have a hard time getting into any offensive rhythm (i.e. Travis Ford teams). If a team doesn't win the rebounding margin, they typically struggle winning consistently (i.e. Travis Ford teams). A good coach will teach/preach rebounding until they are blue in the face and talk about the importance of crashing the boards. And finally, teams who give 100% effort from the beginning to the end of the game won't blow huge leads and will therefore have a good scoring margin at the end of the game. In 2014-15, there were ONLY 9 TEAMS in the NCAA Tournament who ranked in the top 50 in all 4 of these measurements and here are the results.

Duke (won the NC) - head coach Mike Krzyzewski
Wisconsin (lost NC game) lost to Duke - head coach Bo Ryan (retired mid-season 2015-16)
Kentucky (Final 4 team) lost to Wisconsin - head coach John Calipari
Michigan State (Final 4 team) lost to Duke - head coach Tom Izzo
Arizona (Great 8 team) lost to Wisconsin - head coach Sean Miller
Gonzaga (Great 8 team) lost to Duke - head coach Mark Few
North Carolina (Sweet 16 team) lost to Wisconsin - head coach Roy Williams
Utah (Sweet 16 team) lost to Duke - head coach Larry Krystkowiak
Stephen F. Austin (lost in 1st round) lost to Utah - head coach Brad Underwood

That is a pretty elite group of coaches that Brad Underwood is with. If he can recruit the right athletes to oSu, I believe he could build a program that is just as successful as Izzo, Calipari, and Krzyzewski. Below are some other statistically well coached teams from last year. The following teams ranked in the top 50 in 3 of the 4 categories above and all of these have good coaches too (Davidson, Georgia State, Iowa State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, SMU, Villanova, and Wichita State).

Now guess which teams made the NCAA tournament and did NOT make the top 50 in any of these 4 categories? Kansas (which was bounced out in the 2nd round by Wichita State) and I believe they win a lot of games mostly on athletic talent and not great coaching. Sorry if you're a Bill Self fan. I think he is one of the best recruiters, but he is far from one of the best coaches in the industry. His deficiencies in coaching are usually covered up by the talent KU puts out on the floor. For example, in 2014 Kansas was a 2 seed with an RPI rating of 2, but my spreadsheet had Kansas as the 36th best team. On the other hand, Wichita State was a 7 seed with an RPI rating of 17, but my spreadsheet had Wichita State as the 16th best team. Btw, last year oSu did make make it into the top 50 in any of the 4 categories listed above either, which proves just how bad of a coach Travis Ford really is. I believe if we had hired Doug Gottlieb, he would have been one of the best recruiters ever to be at oSu, but his big unknown was could he coach (having no previous experience). Underwood is the complete opposite. I think he will prove to be one of the best coaches in the country, but his big unknown is how well can he recruit (being a relatively unknown without any name recognition), so hiring the right assistant coaches will be of utmost importance (personally I would like to see Gottlieb or Mason as one of the assistants but it doesn't look like that will happen - too many big egos to do the right thing for our basketball program). Time will tell if this is truly a good hire, but I personally believe coach Underwood will end being a great hire (based on his win/loss percentage record for coaches in the first 3 years and the metrics/analytics data I complied on his teams). I don't know about you, but I can't wait until next year to see his basketball team play!
 
I applaud your effort.
Btw, coach Ford's teams did not make the top 50 in any of the four categories last year, but we somehow made it to the tournament. According to my analysis, oSu was the most overrated power 5 conference team in the tourney and rated as the 57 best team in the tourney (only in front of 7 small schools). Here are the stats for Ford's teams the past few years in the 4 important categories.

2012-13 (overall record 24-9)
Assist Turnover Ratio = ranking 170
Field-Goal Percentage = ranking 135
Rebound Margin = ranking 113
Scoring Margin = ranking 39

2013-14 (overall record 21-13)
Assist Turnover Ratio = ranking 40
Field-Goal Percentage = ranking 70
Rebound Margin = ranking 251
Scoring Margin = ranking 18

2014-15 (overall record 18-14)
Assist Turnover Ratio = ranking 220
Field-Goal Percentage = ranking 135
Rebound Margin = ranking 264
Scoring Margin = ranking 100

2015-16 (overall record 12-20)
Assist Turnover Ratio = ranking 229
Field-Goal Percentage = ranking 255
Rebound Margin = ranking 229
Scoring Margin = ranking 209
 
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