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Don't jump, lefties. Please. It's just a poll.

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Poll: Trump Leads in 2020 Matchup Against Top Democrat Candidates

President Trump leads top Democrat candidates in a hypothetical general election matchup, according to a Zogby Analytics/24/7 Wall St. poll released Monday.
The poll, which surveyed 897 likely U.S. voters August 9– 12, shows Trump narrowly topping all of his leading Democrat challengers.

Respondents were asked, “If the 2020 presidential election were held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden, whom would you vote for?”

Of the 897 respondents, 46 percent chose Trump, 45 percent chose Biden, and nine percent said they were unsure. While Biden fares better with millennial voters– 50 percent to Trump’s 38 percent – Trump does better with voters 65 and older, 56 percent to 40 percent. Trump also leads Biden among independent voters, 44 percent to Biden’s 36 percent.

24/7 Wall St reports:

Biden does well with voters under the age of 50, more specifically millennials age 18-29 — Biden wins 50% to 38%. Trump, on the other hand, wins with voters older than 50, more specifically, voters aged 65+ —Trump leads Biden 56% to 40%. There were no surprises when it came to gender. Biden wins with women (Biden leads 48% to 39%) and Trump wins with men (Trumps is ahead 53% to 42%).

Where Trump does his damage is he bests Biden with independents (Trump leads 44% to 36%), small-city voters (Trump leads 47% to 43%), suburban voters (Trump leads 45% to 44%) and both candidates are tied with large-city voters (Biden leads 46% to 45%). When it came to race, Biden wins with African Americans (Biden leads 74% to 21%), but both candidates do well with Hispanics (Biden leads 48% to 46%).

Potential voters were asked the same question, replacing Biden with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), and Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D). The results were as follows:



While a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percent indicates a statistical tie with all of the candidates, this poll tells a drastically different story than the Fox News poll released last week, showing Trump losing to those same candidates by significant margins.

“There’s something going on at Fox, I’ll tell you right now. And I’m not happy with it,” Trump told reporters Sunday, noting that he did not believe the Fox News poll.

“Fox has changed. My worst polls have always been from Fox,” he continued.

“And I think Fox is making a big mistake,” he added. “Because, you know, I’m the one that calls the shots on that — on the really big debates.”

The president seemingly took aim at the network in a tweet Monday, writing, “Great cohesion inside the Republican Party, the best I have ever seen.”

“Despite all of the Fake News, my Poll Numbers are great. New internal polls show them to be the strongest we’ve had so far! Think what they’d be if I got fair media coverage!” he added:




https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...2020-matchup-against-top-democrat-candidates/

 
Weird.

Fox News just did one that ended up saying basically the opposite.
 
And in other breaking news:

Fer gawd's sake!! It's August 2019, which my 48 hrs. of acctg. magically provides me with the fact that the freakin' election is 15 months away. Polls are a joke now, were in 2016(ask Cankles....) and are nothing more
than filler for the news cycle.:rolleyes:
 
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71ugqybGJ3L._SL1500_.jpg
 
And in other breaking news:

Fer gawd's sake!! It's August 2019, which my 48 hrs. of acctg. magically provides me with the fact that the freakin' election is 15 months away. Polls are a joke now, were in 2016(ask Cankles....) and are nothing more
than filler for the news cycle.:rolleyes:
In 2016, polls were a joke 15 minutes before the counting began.
 
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https://www.cnn.com/2015/07/01/politics/donald-trump-poll-hillary-clinton-jeb-bush/index.html

Poll article from July 1, 2015, granted its from CNN so who knows were they were in their crack party before calling likely voters but it is interesting to see the numbers

Whichever socialist running dog wins the nomination he/she/it (depending on which pronoun they wish to be addressed by) will have to form a coherent, meaningful and viable policy other than vote for me because Trump is the devil. Given the 3 frontrunners currently, how many of them appeal to middle of the road voters? The convention will be a freakin zoo and the party platform will be something to be beheld by fiction writers across the planet. In the end can't see many people taking a chance on what they don't know versus what they already know.
 
You know, the one where the (r's) picked up 4 Senate seats...
2

538:

The Senate battleground is certainly better for Democrats in 2020 than it was this year, but it will still be an uphill climb. Republicans made a net gain of two seats this year, securing a 53-47 majority. This means Democrats must net four Senate seats in 2020 to recapture control — or three, if they also win the vice presidency. (The vice president casts the tiebreaking vote in the Senate.)

So what are the odds of that kind of gain? The election is still two years away, so we can’t really look at polling, but we can take a look at how Republican- or Democratic-leaning the states scheduled to hold a Senate election are to get a sense of which seats might be competitive.According to FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean metric, which is the average difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall, where 2016 presidential election results are weighted 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results are weighted 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature are weighted 25 percent. Note that partisan leans may shift a bit, but probably not a lot, once 2018 results are incorporated.

There will be at least 34 seats up for election in 2020,Thirty-three seats are up for election on their regular schedule, and there will be at least one special election, which will be to fill John McCain’s old seat. Other special elections may be added in the next two years.

22 of which are currently held by Republicans and 12 of which are currently held by Democrats — a stark contrast to the 2018 cycle, when Democrats were on the hot seat. That said, to make the kind of gains they need, Democrats will have to overcome the partisan lean of some fairly red states, plus successfully defend two seats of their own in Republican territory.
 
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Forecaster who nailed 2018 Blue Wave on the money (40) weighs in:

https://www.salon.com/2019/08/17/th...d-the-2018-blue-wave-heres-her-2020-forecast/
on Election Day Donald Trump will earn the vote of somewhere around 90% of self-identified Republicans. And as 2018 demonstrated, Republicans will increase their turnout rate over 2016. This, combined with a floor for Trump among Independents of around 38% (because of right-leaning Independents) and an infusion of cash that will dwarf his 2016 efforts, Trump has a floor that is at least theoretically competitive for reelection and will force Democrats to compete hard to win the presidency. The polarized era doesn’t produce landslide maps.
 
on Election Day Donald Trump will earn the vote of somewhere around 90% of self-identified Republicans. And as 2018 demonstrated, Republicans will increase their turnout rate over 2016. This, combined with a floor for Trump among Independents of around 38% (because of right-leaning Independents) and an infusion of cash that will dwarf his 2016 efforts, Trump has a floor that is at least theoretically competitive for reelection and will force Democrats to compete hard to win the presidency. The polarized era doesn’t produce landslide maps.
I actually took this excerpt from the study she produced. For someone incredibly confident in a Dem victory in 2020 she gives major concern about Dems not taking her advice and focusing efforts away from impeachment and radical ideology. If Trump truly has a floor of 38% of independents he’s going to be very difficult to beat head-to-head. I think Biden is the only one who can carry a majority of these independents especially if the economy is performing even adequately well.
 
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I actually took this excerpt from the study she produced. For someone incredibly confident in a Dem victory in 2020 she gives major concern about Dems not taking her advice and focusing efforts away from impeachment and radical ideology. If Trump truly has a floor of 38% of independents he’s going to be very difficult to beat head-to-head. I think Biden is the only one who can carry a majority of these independents especially if the economy is performing even adequately well.

The Impeachment trial is going to be great fun.

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