I’ve seen 20-40 seats in the house. I’ll split and say +30 is a blue wave. 20 or less with as many repubs who folded up shop because they were banging their staffers is a fail historically.
Define blue wave
- Thread starter HighStickHarry
- Start date
Dem house = blue wave
Dem house + Dem Senate (unlikely) = blue tsunami
Dem house + Dem Senate (unlikely) = blue tsunami
So, you are pre-rationalizing so that maybe you have something to feel good about Tuesday night? That's like telling us all that you are going to be celebrating if we don't lose by more than a touchdown to OU on Saturday.
I guess you could say that if you're historically ignorant but some of us know that historically the party in power loses seats in most every mid term election.
With as slim as the majorities are now the only way it would be a blue wave is for Democrats to win control of both the House and Senate in a overwhelming manner. If Democrats do not win the House and lose seats in the Senate it would be a red wave historically.
Seems like it’s your side that is pre-rationalizing, e.g., one C Scott
I gave you my opinion of the quantitative value of a “blue wave” lol.
If that’s “pre-rationalizing” in your mind, this entire board suffers from PRS haha
I'm just excited that I invented a new word (pre-rationalizing). 
That’s fine. It isn’t an opinion many commentators will share though. But you are certainly entitled to your opinion.
From this article
Modern midterm elections have resulted in an average loss of 30 seats in the House of Representatives and Senate by the political party whose president occupies the White House.
Dems can win the House by not even hitting an average seat gain .. I don't think you call that a wave. Cheerleaders may.
These are probably waves ...
Modern midterm election results include:
Modern midterm elections have resulted in an average loss of 30 seats in the House of Representatives and Senate by the political party whose president occupies the White House.
Dems can win the House by not even hitting an average seat gain .. I don't think you call that a wave. Cheerleaders may.
These are probably waves ...
Modern midterm election results include:
- In 2010, Democrats lost 69 seats, 63 in the House and six in the Senate, while Democratic President Barack Obama was in the White House. Obama, who signed an overhaul of the nation's health care system that was deeply unpopular among Tea Party Republicans, later described the midterm results as a "shellacking."
- in 1994, Democrats lost 60 seats, 52 in the House and eight in the Senate, while Democrat Bill Clinton was in office and the opposing party, led by conservative firebrand Newt Gingrich, orchestrated a successful "Republican Revolution" in Congress with its "Contract With America."
- In 1974, Republicans lost 63 seats, 48 in the House and five in the Senate, while Republican President Gerald Ford was in office. The election was held just months after President Richard M. Nixon resigned from the White House in disgrace amid the Watergate scandal.
Good god doc did they tell you in vet school that you were automatically qualified for human psychoanalysis?
The fun part of following politics for longer than two years is historical precedent. Do you know what the history of a president’s first mid term is? I just wanted to know what others would consider a blue wave. I gave my parameters and I will feel accordingly based on those parameters.
What will it be called if the Dems pick up some seats (very likely) but the Republicans keep the house (50/50)?
"Blue Fart" would be the name I'd give it.
I think the Dems are in for a blood bath in the Senate. (Did I just incite some nut job to violence? Hard to tell what qualifies these days.)
"Blue Fart" would be the name I'd give it.
I think the Dems are in for a blood bath in the Senate. (Did I just incite some nut job to violence? Hard to tell what qualifies these days.)
If repubs keep the house it’s crying in the streets time. Just eeking out a small majority is not a dem win. Not against literally Hitler.
I hope that Dems win the House by 1 seat. Just so EVERY Dem has to go on record voting for Pelosi as Speaker. It would be worth the 2 years of stalemate (still won't have presidency or Senate) to basically kill all future Dems from running as a 'moderate'.
Having a majority in the House but not the Senate or the Presidency basically puts them in the position of doing whatever they can to stop what the Senate and the President wants to do.
They can make a lot of noise with investigations that will go nowhere so basically they will be a rock in the cogs of government. Now that can be a good thing or a bad thing depending on what side you support.
How do feel about government mooches in the corporate world?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/boingboing.net/2018/10/29/foxconned.html/amp
Disagree: With the norm being that the president's party loses both the house and Senate, anything less than that should be viewed as a stalemate and somewhat of a win for the R's.
Stalemate I’d buy, but it wouldn’t be a win for pubs if dems flipped the house, no matter how you look at it. House holds the money.
My question is if the Dems take the House by a few seats do they go all Trump Derangement Syndrome and SJW? By that I mean do they try to Impeach Trump or Kav, open dozens of duplicate investigations into BS claims, and basically go off the rails as opposed to actually passing real legislation and budgets?
Or do they take this opportunity to try and lead and work with the other chamber?
Or do they take this opportunity to try and lead and work with the other chamber?
I agree. The committee chair positions are huge. But in this time and place if they just trip over the finish line against the monster they have convinced themselves trump is, that’s not what you people are looking for or expecting.
They will not do this
There can't be a fight. Its still a majority vote for Speaker of the House. The Repubs were able to unanimously (within party) elect Boehner to the position, and given this conundrum, I guarantee they would rally around a nominee. Pelosi would either have to step aside, or Every Dem would have to vote for her to be the Speaker over the Republican nominee. This would be government theater at its finest.
I meant a fight between the big money people who control pelosi and the rest of the dem senior citizens versus the young Turk sector of the Dems.
Yeah. Gonna be a record turnout but too many Republicans will come out in rural states.
Interesting. I’ve been reading that 2016 is in the back of all Dems minds and the nyt bouncing needle has given everyone ptsd. Pollster on msnbc said hold on to your shorts because he doesn’t trust anything and that’s his job. Fox News announced they are abandoning exit polls in favor of large sample surveys to catch the early vote population.
I don't think you can trust anything anymore. Polls don't tell the whole story. People lie. Pollsters have bias. I'm not going to be shocked by anything tomorrow night. I was totally surprised when Trump won in 2016. I learned my lesson.
It holds some power but it also would be a disappointing outcome given the level of effort out into this election.
Russia/Mueller/Impeachment chatter aside, it would hopefully stir up some serious tax/budget talk. I knew before he ever got elected what some of his true intentions were...
- harder stance on immigration, including DACA and noncriminal aliens
- rewrite the tax code to benefit himself
- deregulation
The expectations at this point is that Republicans will hold the Senate and Democrats will take the House.
If the Dems somehow take both the Senate and House, I agree with CScott that such an outcome would be a blue tsunami. If Republicans hold both houses, that would be a red wave...and increases in their majority in both houses would be a red tsunami.
I think Dems can claim a wave if they win the House, because that gives them control of one house of Congress. Such wave talk would be helped too if they break even in the Senate with Republicans or the GOP only has one seat gain given this year's map.
Also, keep an eye on key governor races too. If it is a blue wave, Dems will win some of these.
I would put the chances of the Republicans retaining both at around 20%. Everything seems to be pointing towards a Red Senate though.
