After I loaded all detailed stats for each team (Batting, Pitching, and Fielding), it increased Georgia's chances of winning by 2% and decreased OSU's by 2%. 
Team Analysis
Georgia (No. 1 Seed, 42-15)
Team Analysis
Georgia (No. 1 Seed, 42-15)
- Chances of Winning the Regional: 52%
- Georgia’s 42-15 record, No. 7 national seed, and home-field advantage at Foley Field make them the favorites. Their offense (.286 AVG, 133 HRs, .556 SLG) is elite, led by Slate Alford and Robbie Burnett, and their pitching (4.83 ERA, 606 Ks) is deep. A .982 fielding percentage is strong, and the SEC schedule prepared them for high-level competition. Oklahoma State’s roster losses boost Georgia’s odds, though losses to weaker teams (e.g., Army) are a concern.
- Key Players (2025 Stats):
- Slate Alford (INF): .325 AVG, 17 HRs, 60 RBIs, 1.060 OPS, .628 SLG. Alford’s power and consistency anchor the lineup.
- Robbie Burnett (OF): .318 AVG, 20 HRs, 66 RBIs, 1.224 OPS, .732 SLG, 17-21 SB. Burnett’s speed and pop are critical.
- Leighton Finley (RHP): 2-2, 5.08 ERA, 62.0 IP, 76 Ks, .221 B/AVG. Finley’s strikeouts make him a reliable starter.
- Brian Curley (RHP): 4-3, 3.21 ERA, 61.2 IP, 78 Ks, .158 B/AVG. Curley’s low opponent average is ideal for high-stakes games.
- What Georgia Must Do to Win:
- Leverage Offensive Firepower: With 133 HRs and a .409 OBP, Georgia must exploit weaker pitching (e.g., Binghamton’s 6.46 ERA) and maintain aggressive plate discipline.
- Pitching Depth: Finley and Curley need to go deep, with relievers like Zach Harris (3.37 ERA, 4 SVs) and JT Quinn (2.25 ERA) preserving arms for multiple games.
- Home Advantage: A 28-5 home record demands using Foley Field’s crowd to rattle opponents, especially a depleted Oklahoma State.
- What to Avoid:
- Underestimating Lower Seeds: Losses to teams like Army show Georgia can’t overlook Binghamton’s disciplined hitters (.294 AVG).
- Bullpen Fatigue: With 290 appearances across 57 games, overusing relievers like Harris or Quinn early could hurt later.
- Defensive Errors: A .982 FLD% is solid, but 35 errors (e.g., Alford’s 7) could be costly in tight games.
- Injuries and Momentum:
- No major injuries reported. Georgia’s SEC performance was strong, but an SEC Tournament loss to Texas A&M slowed momentum. Hosting the regional provides a reset.
- Chances of Winning the Regional: 30%
- Duke’s 37-19 record and ACC Tournament sweep highlight their potential, but late-season struggles (3-7 in last four series) and a road environment temper their odds. Their offense (.289 AVG, 99 HRs, .517 SLG) is potent, and pitching (4.91 ERA, 520 Ks) is solid with Reid Easterly’s relief prowess. Oklahoma State’s roster losses improve Duke’s chances against them.
- Key Players (2025 Stats):
- Ben Miller (3B): .323 AVG, 18 HRs, 58 RBIs, 1.045 OPS, .623 SLG. Miller’s power is a lineup cornerstone.
- Tyler Albright (OF): .315 AVG, 9 HRs, 43 RBIs, .976 OPS, 14-14 SB. Albright’s speed and on-base skills (.454 OBP) set the table.
- Reid Easterly (RHP): 8-2, 3.22 ERA, 64.1 IP, 58 Ks, 4 SVs, .236 B/AVG. Easterly’s versatility as a closer or starter is key.
- James Tallon (RHP): 1-2, 3.98 ERA, 31.2 IP, 43 Ks, .198 B/AVG. Tallon’s low opponent average makes him a strong starter.
- What Duke Must Do to Win:
- Offensive Balance: With a .427 OBP and 99 HRs, Miller and Albright must drive in runs against Oklahoma State’s weak bullpen (4.33 ERA).
- Pitching Management: Easterly and Tallon need to limit Georgia’s power (133 HRs), while Gabe Nard (4.37 ERA) provides depth in long games.
- Road Resilience: A 12-10 road record requires focus in Athens’ hostile environment, especially against Georgia’s crowd.
- What to Avoid:
- Pitching Inconsistency: A 4.91 ERA and 85 HBPs show vulnerability. Allowing big innings against Georgia’s offense is fatal.
- Defensive Lapses: A .977 FLD% with 47 errors (e.g., Miller’s 9) could hurt in close games.
- Slow Starts: Duke’s 457 Ks offensively suggest strikeout-prone hitters (e.g., Hyde’s 58 Ks) must make early contact.
- Injuries and Momentum:
- No major injuries reported, though Santucci’s absence from stats suggests he may not be a factor. Duke’s ACC Tournament run provides momentum, but late-season losses show inconsistency.
- Chances of Winning the Regional: 12%
- Oklahoma State’s 28-23 record and No. 44 RPI reflect a tough schedule (13th-toughest). Their late surge (10-2 in last 12 games, including sweeps of UCF and Arizona State) shows momentum, but the loss of Carson Benge (drafted by Mets) and Aidan Meola’s injury severely weaken their offense (.254 AVG, 82 HRs). A 4.33 ERA and .972 FLD% are liabilities, and roster losses lower their odds.
- Key Players (2025 Stats):
- Nolan Schubart (OF): .285 AVG, 17 HRs, 54 RBIs, 1.022 OPS, .602 SLG, .420 OBP. Schubart’s power is OSU’s biggest threat.
- Colin Brueggemann (1B): .301 AVG, 14 HRs, 52 RBIs, .959 OPS, .582 SLG. Brueggemann’s consistency is vital without Meola.
- Sean Youngerman (RHP): 3-1, 2.08 ERA, 52.0 IP, 59 Ks, .193 B/AVG. Youngerman’s elite numbers make him a top starter.
- Harrison Bodendorf (RHP): 10-1, 2.77 ERA, 87.2 IP, 100 Ks, .198 B/AVG. Bodendorf’s strikeouts are crucial for big games.
- What Oklahoma State Must Do to Win:
- Schubart and Brueggemann Production: With Meola out and Benge gone, Schubart (.420 OBP) and Brueggemann (.377 OBP) must carry the offense against Duke’s pitching (4.91 ERA).
- Pitching Efficiency: Youngerman and Bodendorf need to pitch deep to save a bullpen with a 4.33 ERA, especially against Georgia’s 133 HRs.
- Early Upset: Beating Duke keeps OSU in the winner’s bracket, preserving pitching for later games.
- What to Avoid:
- Bullpen Collapses: A 4.33 ERA and 533 opponent Ks show bullpen weaknesses (e.g., Blake’s 6.93 ERA). Big innings could end their run.
- Defensive Errors: A .972 FLD% with 51 errors (e.g., Culbertson’s 13) is a liability against Georgia’s aggressive hitting.
- Over-Reliance on Schubart: With only 82 HRs and a .254 AVG, pitching around Schubart could stall the offense if Brueggemann or Brayden Smith (.312 AVG) don’t step up.
- Injuries and Momentum:
- Aidan Meola is out with an injury, and Carson Benge is off the roster. Beau Sylvester is healthy after a 2024 knee injury (.236 AVG, 2 HRs). OSU’s 10-2 finish and 18 wins against top-100 RPI teams show momentum, but roster losses and a Big 12 Tournament loss to Kansas hurt.
- Chances of Winning the Regional: 6%
- Binghamton’s 29-24 record and America East Tournament title earned an automatic bid, but their 6.46 ERA and 2-8 record against top-100 RPI teams make them underdogs. Their offense (.294 AVG, 70 HRs) is solid, but pitching struggles against power offenses like Georgia’s.
- Key Players (2025 Stats):
- Zach Rogacki (OF): .360 AVG, 8 HRs, 42 RBIs, 1.046 OPS, .609 SLG, 5-6 SB. Rogacki’s contact and power lead the lineup.
- Freddy Forgione (3B): .358 AVG, 14 HRs, 46 RBIs, 1.105 OPS, .642 SLG. Forgione’s production is critical.
- Hayden Tarsia (RHP): 4-3, 4.97 ERA, 67.0 IP, 56 Ks, .265 B/AVG. Tarsia’s control is Binghamton’s best pitching asset.
- Ryan Packard (RHP): 3-5, 7.52 ERA, 61.0 IP, 38 Ks, .265 B/AVG. Packard needs to limit damage against elite hitters.
- What Binghamton Must Do to Win:
- Offensive Opportunism: With a .401 OBP, Rogacki and Forgione must capitalize on mistakes from Georgia’s bullpen (4.83 ERA).
- Pitching Discipline: Tarsia and relievers like Jake Dally (6.12 ERA, 3 SVs) need to avoid walks (216 BBs) and keep games low-scoring.
- Steal an Upset: Beating Georgia early puts Binghamton in the winner’s bracket, forcing opponents to burn pitching.
- What to Avoid:
- Big Innings Allowed: A 6.46 ERA and 62 HRs allowed show pitching vulnerabilities. Georgia’s 133 HRs could exploit this.
- Defensive Miscues: A .978 FLD% with 41 errors (e.g., Bade’s 9) could cost runs against aggressive offenses.
- Strikeouts: Binghamton’s 359 Ks offensively (e.g., Stellrecht’s 51) must be minimized against Georgia’s 606 Ks.
- Injuries and Momentum:
- No major injuries reported. Binghamton’s America East title provides confidence, but their 6.46 ERA and 2-8 record against top-100 RPI teams suggest they’re outmatched.
