That’s all well and good in a vacuum, except the trends of hospitalizations and deaths follow the trends of cases. The number of cases themselves doesn’t matter to anyone by themselves, it’s that we have been able to pretty closely predict now how the hospitalizations and deaths will follow. Obviously it’s not 1:1 or anywhere close, but if you look at the trend lines they match up pretty closely but hospitalizations are about 2 weeks lagging and then deaths 2 weeks behind that.
Of course it does, but it always would, even if the case count was accurate. I'm not saying that looking at positive test numbers is a fools errand. All I'm stating is that there should be at the very least a track of death with Covid and death by Covid, there should also be a positive test count and a case count. My biggest complaint about how this was being handled from the very beginning was that the data was skewed and not containing enough detail. As the CEO of my company says "you can only make good decisions if based on good data."
What would this look like based on the percentages that we think we know. Colorado is the only state that has death with and death by Covid numbers. Essentially they are saying that 5240 people died with Covid and of those, 4,281 people died due to Covid. So if we take that and assume that it is fairly accurate and would be about the same everywhere you would end up with numbers about like this:
- Total US has approximately 9.2 million people that have tested positive and have not yet been resolved - approximately 2.8 percent of the population.
- Current numbers indicate that .034 percent of the US population is in the hospital that are currently and also in the non-resolved Covid positive test count. That translates to 1.15 million people and it also means that twelve percent of people that catch Covid require hospital care. Note that under a normal consideration, you wouldn't have to be hospitalized for it to count as a case. An example is my mother's husband. He had medical care, but due to other severe health issues, it was decided that he would probably do as well or better at home. He was already on oxygen, they just increased the the percentage to keep his saturation numbers above a certain threshold. So the case percentage will be higher than the 12%. I only have anecdotal justification to state that I would expect the case percentage would be in the 20-25% range of positive tests.
- Death rate is currently listed as 381,000 for the nearly 23 million positive tests since this tracking began. using the other numbers that have been provided would mean 308.6K deaths by Covid and 72K deaths with Covid.
- To go further making an assumption of 25% case count per positive test and that every death by covid would be classified as a case, that brings the case count to 5.75 million cases and increases the death by Covid to 5.37%
I know that the numbers above are not exact and shouldn't ever be stated as gospel. They are likely in the ballpark, but frankly, it is impossible to glean correct numbers from what is being collected. And for the record, I've been talking about bad data since March when the country lost its collective mind. Then if we had an actual case number, we could then collect pretty accurate information about re-infections. As it is now, we can not do that with any degree of accuracy nor can we tell, other than anecdotally if re-infections tend to be better or worse than the initial infection. Which also means it will be almost impossible to track true efficacy of these vaccines.