People have been messaging me since Saturday wanting to know my thoughts on how the college football selection will go down. I figured that several on here may be interested as well, so I will discuss it in this thread.
Disclaimers--
1) There is no way to predict how the dynamics will play out in that room when the final rankings are compiled, but there are things that are indicators and things from which you can draw insight.
2) Until the games are played on Saturday, there are far too many possible combinations to summarize them in one succinct paragraph. I will play out a couple of options on games, but not all.
THINGS TO CONSIDER--
1) Why did the committee move Oklahoma State ahead of Notre Dame? The answer here as well as what contributed to it, are important. I have reason to believe that there is more to this than just the bedlam performance.
This committee has repeatedly talked about the value of conference championships and top 25 wins. Notre Dame does not have either. (There are some that do not like Notre Dame clinging to independence and getting a free pass for consideration while avoiding a championship game against a ranked team at the end of the season.) When Oklahoma State beat Oklahoma, the Cowboys secured their second ranked win as well as positioned themselves to be a 1-loss power five conference champion.
Secondarily, when Cincinnati beat East Carolina, they collected their 12th win, assuring them of being no worse than a 1-loss team with the opportunity of being a conference champion, although not Power 5.
The committee knew that they could not put Notre Dame in over an undefeated Cincinnati since the Bearcats beat them handily in South Bend. If only 1 of those two teams got into the field, it would be an undefeated Cincinnati.
The committee also knew that they could not take both Cincinnati and Notre Dame, because that would mean that at least 3 of the Power 5 Conference champions would not make the playoffs. There are certain scenarios where you could have 4 of the 5 not making it in. Fore example: if Alabama beat Georgia, Baylor beat OSU, Cincinnati beat Houston, and Iowa beat Michigan. Leaving Notre Dame at 4 would produce a field of Georgia, Alabama, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame. That will not be allowed to happen. That is why Notre Dame had to drop below Oklahoma State.
With the Playoff Expansion meetings failing to produce an agreement by December 1, there is no way this committee will allow all power 5 conferences but the SEC to be omitted, and they really don't want all but 2 left out either.
Brian Kelly leaving provides cover for the committee in their final rankings to use it to justify moving down Notre Dame, but they hopefully will not need it. If necessary, Oregon or Baylor could leap frog them into the top 4 if enough chaos happens.
2) What has this committee publicly said that they value after each rankings release? (There are seven new members this year, so don't expect it to function like previous years.) Go back and look at Gary Barta's comments each week and you can pull together some common themes.
a. They look at each team's resume: won-loss record, strength of schedule, head to head, results against common opponents, and each members perception of how those teams are actually playing.
b. This group has focused more on quality wins than bad losses. Oregon was really rewarded for their win against Ohio State despite a bad loss. Mississippi State debuted at #17 with a 5-3 record because they had 3 impressive wins over teams that the committee liked.
NOTE: This is where Cincinnati could have trouble at the final ranking meeting. Go back and read their comments each week about the poor schedule. The comments were not just about the results, but the Bearcats not controlling the game. In week one, Barta was asked a question of how the committee felt philosphically about a team going undefeated and not making it into the top 10. His answer: "...Record is one piece of the puzzle for sure, but as I mentioned at the opening, strength of schedule, who you play, who you beat, head-to-head, common opponents. At the end of the day whether somebody is undefeated or has one or two losses, we haven’t talked about philosophically as a committee. We really haven’t gone there."--Of course that was easy to say in week one of the rankings because you did not yet have an undefeated team in the possible position to be left out, but the groundwork has been laid to do such a thing.
c. This group discusses statistics and focuses on advanced metrics that help them get a sense of 'game control' that they put with "how the games look to them when they watch them". This is why they were so low on Oklahoma even when the Sooners were undefeated at 9-0 but ranked 8th.
NOTE: This was seen in the defense of having OSU at 9 with OU 13 when they had the same records during the third ranking release: "Oklahoma State’s defense, the committee thinks very highly of the way they’ve been playing defense, some of the best defense this year. They beat Baylor, and so that certainly resonates with the committee. And then as of late offensively, Oklahoma State has been playing much better the last several weeks.
Later he said this: "as a committee what we’ll do each week is just come back and compare Oklahoma State, who they beat or who they lost to and then compare it to the people around them."--The ground work was laid out a long time ago for continually moving OSU up the rankings. If OSU's defense plays well against Baylor and we control the game, I think there is very little chance OSU will not be top 4 regardless of other results.
SCENARIOS (all assume OSU beats Baylor & teams listed are the winners. OSU will not make it in with 2 losses.):
1) If any of Georgia, Iowa, or Houston win, Oklahoma State is in regardless of what else happens. OSU will probably be seeded 3rd, but could be as high as 2nd.
2) WORST CASE: Alabama, Michigan, and Cincinnati win-->Most likely OSU gets in with the committee deciding between Georgia and Cincinnati. Based on data and committee statements, a clean game by OSU has a 90%+ chance of getting in with this worst case scenario. OSU would likely be 3rd in this scenario if Cincinnati got in over Georgia. If both Georgia and Alabama got in, I would suspect that they would not have them play each other so the seedings could be manipulated.
Hope that helps.
Disclaimers--
1) There is no way to predict how the dynamics will play out in that room when the final rankings are compiled, but there are things that are indicators and things from which you can draw insight.
2) Until the games are played on Saturday, there are far too many possible combinations to summarize them in one succinct paragraph. I will play out a couple of options on games, but not all.
THINGS TO CONSIDER--
1) Why did the committee move Oklahoma State ahead of Notre Dame? The answer here as well as what contributed to it, are important. I have reason to believe that there is more to this than just the bedlam performance.
This committee has repeatedly talked about the value of conference championships and top 25 wins. Notre Dame does not have either. (There are some that do not like Notre Dame clinging to independence and getting a free pass for consideration while avoiding a championship game against a ranked team at the end of the season.) When Oklahoma State beat Oklahoma, the Cowboys secured their second ranked win as well as positioned themselves to be a 1-loss power five conference champion.
Secondarily, when Cincinnati beat East Carolina, they collected their 12th win, assuring them of being no worse than a 1-loss team with the opportunity of being a conference champion, although not Power 5.
The committee knew that they could not put Notre Dame in over an undefeated Cincinnati since the Bearcats beat them handily in South Bend. If only 1 of those two teams got into the field, it would be an undefeated Cincinnati.
The committee also knew that they could not take both Cincinnati and Notre Dame, because that would mean that at least 3 of the Power 5 Conference champions would not make the playoffs. There are certain scenarios where you could have 4 of the 5 not making it in. Fore example: if Alabama beat Georgia, Baylor beat OSU, Cincinnati beat Houston, and Iowa beat Michigan. Leaving Notre Dame at 4 would produce a field of Georgia, Alabama, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame. That will not be allowed to happen. That is why Notre Dame had to drop below Oklahoma State.
With the Playoff Expansion meetings failing to produce an agreement by December 1, there is no way this committee will allow all power 5 conferences but the SEC to be omitted, and they really don't want all but 2 left out either.
Brian Kelly leaving provides cover for the committee in their final rankings to use it to justify moving down Notre Dame, but they hopefully will not need it. If necessary, Oregon or Baylor could leap frog them into the top 4 if enough chaos happens.
2) What has this committee publicly said that they value after each rankings release? (There are seven new members this year, so don't expect it to function like previous years.) Go back and look at Gary Barta's comments each week and you can pull together some common themes.
a. They look at each team's resume: won-loss record, strength of schedule, head to head, results against common opponents, and each members perception of how those teams are actually playing.
b. This group has focused more on quality wins than bad losses. Oregon was really rewarded for their win against Ohio State despite a bad loss. Mississippi State debuted at #17 with a 5-3 record because they had 3 impressive wins over teams that the committee liked.
NOTE: This is where Cincinnati could have trouble at the final ranking meeting. Go back and read their comments each week about the poor schedule. The comments were not just about the results, but the Bearcats not controlling the game. In week one, Barta was asked a question of how the committee felt philosphically about a team going undefeated and not making it into the top 10. His answer: "...Record is one piece of the puzzle for sure, but as I mentioned at the opening, strength of schedule, who you play, who you beat, head-to-head, common opponents. At the end of the day whether somebody is undefeated or has one or two losses, we haven’t talked about philosophically as a committee. We really haven’t gone there."--Of course that was easy to say in week one of the rankings because you did not yet have an undefeated team in the possible position to be left out, but the groundwork has been laid to do such a thing.
c. This group discusses statistics and focuses on advanced metrics that help them get a sense of 'game control' that they put with "how the games look to them when they watch them". This is why they were so low on Oklahoma even when the Sooners were undefeated at 9-0 but ranked 8th.
NOTE: This was seen in the defense of having OSU at 9 with OU 13 when they had the same records during the third ranking release: "Oklahoma State’s defense, the committee thinks very highly of the way they’ve been playing defense, some of the best defense this year. They beat Baylor, and so that certainly resonates with the committee. And then as of late offensively, Oklahoma State has been playing much better the last several weeks.
Later he said this: "as a committee what we’ll do each week is just come back and compare Oklahoma State, who they beat or who they lost to and then compare it to the people around them."--The ground work was laid out a long time ago for continually moving OSU up the rankings. If OSU's defense plays well against Baylor and we control the game, I think there is very little chance OSU will not be top 4 regardless of other results.
SCENARIOS (all assume OSU beats Baylor & teams listed are the winners. OSU will not make it in with 2 losses.):
1) If any of Georgia, Iowa, or Houston win, Oklahoma State is in regardless of what else happens. OSU will probably be seeded 3rd, but could be as high as 2nd.
2) WORST CASE: Alabama, Michigan, and Cincinnati win-->Most likely OSU gets in with the committee deciding between Georgia and Cincinnati. Based on data and committee statements, a clean game by OSU has a 90%+ chance of getting in with this worst case scenario. OSU would likely be 3rd in this scenario if Cincinnati got in over Georgia. If both Georgia and Alabama got in, I would suspect that they would not have them play each other so the seedings could be manipulated.
Hope that helps.
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