Can Oklahoma State football run the Big 12? Best-case, worst-case scenario for Cowboys

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Can Oklahoma State football run the Big 12? Best-case, worst-case scenario for Cowboys​

Scott Wright
The Oklahoman

STILLWATER — Hopes are sky-high at Oklahoma State as football season nears.

The 18th-ranked Cowboys won 10 games a year ago and brought back nearly every key playmaker off that team entering the season opener against FCS No. 1 South Dakota State at 1 p.m. Saturday at Boone Pickens Stadium.

With a combination of talent and experience that is hard to match, the Pokes see big things in their future.

But no college football season goes fully as expected.

Here’s a look at the best-case scenarios and worst-case scenarios for the Cowboys in each game this season:

Aug. 31: vs. South Dakota State, 1 p.m. (ESPN+)​

Best case: A cruise-control victory. While the Jackrabbits have won 29 straight games and have a quarterback who won the FCS version of the Heisman Trophy last year, the Cowboys have enough talent to control this game.

Worst case: The obvious answer is a loss, and the Pokes are only a 9.5-point favorite, so the sportsbooks aren’t anticipating a blowout. Short of losing this game, any long-term injuries would be next on the list of bad possibilities.

Sept. 7: vs. Arkansas, 11 a.m. (ABC)​

Best case: While the Razorbacks will bring a bevy of SEC talent to Stillwater, they’re predicted to finish in the bottom quarter of the league, so OSU should be able to control this game. Renewing this regional rivalry brings some excitement, with four meetings in the next decade.

Worst case: A loss here would sting. Probably more than a Week 1 loss to SDSU. And Arkansas has the athletic ability to expose some potential holes in the OSU defense.

Sept. 14: at Tulsa, 11 a.m. (ESPN2)​

Best case: The ideal scenario here is for the Pokes to face a bit of road adversity to give them a taste of it prior to Big 12 play, but still roll to an easy victory.

Worst case: The Cowboys have won nine straight in this series, but the last two have been by single digits. OSU needed true freshman Shane Illingworth to bail them out after Spencer Sanders sprained his ankle in the 2020 season opener, a 16-7 win. OSU won 28-23 a year later. So, there are no guarantees here.

Sept. 21: vs. Utah​

Best case: Even a narrow victory is highly valuable here. In the race for the Big 12 Championship Game, a win over Utah will be critical not only in record but also in potential tiebreaker scenarios — because OSU folks know how jumbled those can get.

Worst case: A demoralizing defeat. Losing this game would hurt, but not destroy OSU’s long-term goals. Getting beaten down would zap the good vibes of a highly anticipated season.

Sept. 28: at Kansas State​

Best case: It was the Kansas State win last year that turned the Cowboy season around. While they should be in better position when they make the trip to Manhattan, Kansas, this year than when they hosted the Wildcats last year, a win would be equally valuable. Moreover, starting Big 12 play with wins over Utah and K-State would put the Pokes in the early driver’s seat for the conference title game.

Worst case: No need for explanation here. The Cowboys already experienced the worst possible scenario on a trip to Kansas State in 2022 (a 48-0 loss, in case your brain has blocked that memory).

Oct. 5: vs. West Virginia​

Best case: This is a momentum game. Regardless of what happens in the two weeks before, this game will set the stage for a late October/early November schedule full of road games against middle-tier teams. A comfortable win ahead of an open week would be ideal for setting the Cowboys’ focus on the second half of the season.

Worst case: This is a team that should be feared. Among the teams viewed as the middle of the Big 12 pack, the Mountaineers are one of the top sleeper candidates. And with the Cowboys coming off two hugely important conference games, they must avoid any type of mental or emotional letdown.

Oct. 19: at BYU, 9:15 p.m. (ESPN)​

Best case: This will be the Cowboys’ only new venue for a road game this season, and the Cougar fans are sure to be amped up to have such a big opponent on a Friday night. So OSU’s goal is to enjoy the scenery, lock up a win and enjoy a Cougar Tail pastry or two before heading home.

Worst case: OSU hasn’t played a Big 12 road game on a Friday night since Iowa State in 2011. The worst possible scenario would be reliving such a fate as the Cowboys faced that night at Jack Trice Stadium.

Oct. 26: at Baylor​

Best case: OSU has only one occurrence of back-to-back road games, and the schedule falls favorably with this trip coming after a Friday game. That means OSU has an extra day to recuperate after BYU before this meeting in Waco. So despite the busy travel schedule, the Pokes should be in line for another win. And any road win in the Big 12 is a good one.

Worst case: Baylor coach Dave Aranda is near the top of the list among Big 12 coaches on the hot seat. By late October, he could be on shaky ground. But beating OSU — especially if the Pokes are still rolling — might be his lifeline.

Nov. 2: vs. Arizona State​

Best case: It’s homecoming against one of the season’s easiest opponents. Win big and move on down the road.

Worst case: It’s homecoming against one of the season’s easiest opponents. Depending on the circumstances, a loss could cripple the Cowboys’ season.

Nov. 9: at TCU​

Best case: Trips to Fort Worth, Texas, haven’t been too friendly to OSU in recent years, so at the end of a string with three road games in four weeks, getting the W will be all that matters here.

Worst case: OSU coach Mike Gundy has spoken highly of TCU’s chances to bounce back from a down season and get itself back into the Big 12 title game race. A lot could be on the line by the time OSU heads down I-35 for this one. A loss might put OSU on the wrong side of the standings.

Nov. 23: vs. Texas Tech​

Best case: OSU quarterback Alan Bowman will be playing his final home game against the program where his college career began seven years ago. Seems like he might be in line for a big day leading to an easy OSU win.

Worst case: Like West Virginia, Texas Tech is another Big 12 team with sleeper hopes. This will be Senior Day for a ton of Cowboy stars, so they’ll need to keep their emotions in check. If the Pokes aren’t mentally focused, a loss here wouldn’t be a shock.

Nov. 29: at Colorado, 11 a.m. (ABC)​

Best case: What kind of team will Colorado be by the time Black Friday rolls around? Impossible to know with the Deion Sanders-led Buffaloes. Either way, there’s a good chance the Cowboys need a win to clinch — or at least stay in the running for — a Big 12 title game berth.

Worst case: Colorado has the individual talent to compete with a lot of teams. Boulder, Colorado, presents a unique atmosphere with the high elevation and a rowdy crowd, especially if Colorado is playing good football late in the year. A loss could be the breaking point for OSU’s Big 12 title game hopes.
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