Brokered GOP convention?
- Thread starter AC_Exotic
- Start date
If they do it than and screw the most popular candidate of the people I will immediately be completely done with the Republican party and vote third party as much as possible.
They will be a footnote in history like the Whigs if they try and pull this off.
They will be a footnote in history like the Whigs if they try and pull this off.
I think any active to attempt to drive it that way like getting Romney on the ballot in California would be a mistake. However, if it naturally ends up brokered between Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich and they end up choosing a candidate that is not Trump because they think he has the best shot to beat Hillary I am 100% on board with that. In fact, not choosing the candidate with the best shot to beat Hillary is how you end up a footnote. Maybe it's Trump, maybe it isn't. Most of the polls I've seen say it's Rubio although I think he is doing everything he can to change that.
I think selecting someone and ignoring the popular vote would be disastrous for the country and our democratic system. Playing with fire here.
The GOP needs to suck it up and get behind Trump if he clearly wins the popular nomination.
If not, it basically admits the whole thing is a farce and our leaders are appointed not elected.
The idea that it's for the greater good of beating Hillary is 100% bullshit. Is there any doubt the GOP would rather let Hillary coast for four years of what it's used to rather than let Tump take over their worthless party?
A brokered convention will not, nor should it, end well.
The GOP needs to suck it up and get behind Trump if he clearly wins the popular nomination.
If not, it basically admits the whole thing is a farce and our leaders are appointed not elected.
The idea that it's for the greater good of beating Hillary is 100% bullshit. Is there any doubt the GOP would rather let Hillary coast for four years of what it's used to rather than let Tump take over their worthless party?
A brokered convention will not, nor should it, end well.
This is what you're missing. The fact is, if voting patterns continue in the current direction, NO ONE is going to have enough delegates to win the nomination.
We could be looking at an old fashioned Mexican standoff.
That's why brokered conventions occur.
Trump has serious problems regarding negatives. Current exit polls amongst GOP voters tell us anywhere from 45 to 60% of party voters will be very dissatisfied if Trump wins the nomination. (I'm not even mentioning his negatives outside of the party.)
If this were a 2 man race, Trump would be finished.
Very interesting times political nerds. Interesting times.
We could be looking at an old fashioned Mexican standoff.
That's why brokered conventions occur.
Trump has serious problems regarding negatives. Current exit polls amongst GOP voters tell us anywhere from 45 to 60% of party voters will be very dissatisfied if Trump wins the nomination. (I'm not even mentioning his negatives outside of the party.)
If this were a 2 man race, Trump would be finished.
Very interesting times political nerds. Interesting times.
Last edited:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the GOP doesn't just choose to have a contested convention... it happens if no candidate gains the required 50%+1 delegates. So it's not like the party leaders would be doing something shady... Now I'm sure Trump and his people would cry foul play anyways.
This is why Rubio, Kasich and Carson to all need to suspend their campaigns and let the 2 front runners handle their own business.
This is why Rubio, Kasich and Carson to all need to suspend their campaigns and let the 2 front runners handle their own business.
Did you see Trump's talk last night? I thought it was his best by far and showed me that he was maturing as a candidate. He said some things I didn't like but a lot of what I did. A brokered convention seems like it would be the death knell for the GOP. If there are any shenanigans at the convention it would not surprise me to see Trump go third party which would guarantee a GOP defeat. The GOP establishment needs to factor that into their desire to retain power.
Last edited:
That's my understanding as well which is why I don't see why people are so bent out of shape. I can't think of an election where less than a majority clinches the election. It's no different than a runoff where the guy who got the most votes in the primary doesn't win.
I think he would have a difficult time getting on ballots in all 50 states as a third party candidate that late in the game.
That's exactly what would happen. It's not an underhanded back room scheme. It's how our Democracy operates.
It was probably his best, but he still couldn't help himself 2-3 times. And it doesn't change all the things he's already said that will help fuel the Democrats in the general if he is the nominee, which seems likely.
I think thus far the campaign has been far LESS nasty than is typical. That will certainly change if it is Trump vs HRC; it will be nastiest Presidential campaign probably ever and certainly since the19th century.
12 states have filing deadlines prior to the GOP convention if you want to be on the ballot as an independent. Texas, Florida Illinois, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Indiana, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Nevada, New Mexico, Delaware. 175 electoral votes up for grabs.
So if Trump wants to run as an independent he will have to decide well in advance of the convention. Texas' deadline is May 9.
So if Trump wants to run as an independent he will have to decide well in advance of the convention. Texas' deadline is May 9.
I think it will come down to Ohio and Florida. If Rubio and Kasich cannot carry their home states in primary they have NO chance of winning a general election. If the do carry their home states there is a real possibility that no candidate has a majority delegate count in the primary voting. That would be a lucky back door for the Republican party. I think we will know what is going to happen on March 16.
A random thought related to the topic of this thread: James Garfield won the Republican nomination in 1880 at the convention in Chicago, on the 36th ballot. He was not even considering running for President at the time; he was minority House leader and (curiously was also elected US Senator from Ohio in 1880). He is the only sitting House member ever elected President.
Might that happen again? The convention is in Cleveland. Favored son John Kasich?
Might that happen again? The convention is in Cleveland. Favored son John Kasich?
I hope to see a brokered convention. The political science nerd inside me would definitely geek out.
Closest in my lifetime that I remember was the 1976 convention with Ford and Reagan. I was just a 12 year old kid at the time, but got caught up in the drama and intrigue of that convention. (I my have been interested because we only had 4 or 5 channels on tv at the time.)
My guess is we'll all see much of this shake out by the first of May. Trump could have enough delegates by then or be close enough that we'd know what the polls are saying in the states which have their primaries after May 9.
I'll bet most of his voters gravitate towards Cruz.
Kasich people would go to Rubio.
I think Trump is maxed out.
The corporate media and the GOP establishment definitely want a brokered convention.
Almost 80% of articles are about how the GOP candidates can stop Trump.
Considering the only candidates inspiring widespread passion during this elections are Bernie and Trump......this could end badly.
Almost 80% of articles are about how the GOP candidates can stop Trump.
Considering the only candidates inspiring widespread passion during this elections are Bernie and Trump......this could end badly.
Worth a read. (always disliked Rush for years, but now I find his analysis very interesting, particularly in written form)
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2016/03/02/three_gop_strategeries_to_stop_trump
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2..._to_know_about_what_happened_on_super_tuesday
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2016/03/02/three_gop_strategeries_to_stop_trump
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2..._to_know_about_what_happened_on_super_tuesday
It's true that Trump is inspiring passion in the form of turnout.Since he's mostly winning, its primarily to his benefit. But he is also engendering a strong backlash such that his foes are also beating previous cycles turnout numbers too.
It's really an interesting case/situation, from a political science angle.
It's really an interesting case/situation, from a political science angle.
I bet all of the candidates ask for their support. More of them will probably go to Trump IMO. Some to Cruz.
He did last night when he called for the other 3 candidates to drop out of the race.
The nominee needs 1200 delegates to win this thing. Cruz is only around 90 behind Trump. This is far from over.
I'm a Carson supporter who'll now go towards Trump. Why? Because screw the establishment GOP wonks. That's why.
Is it a good reason? Maybe not but it is good enough for me right now.
Is it a good reason? Maybe not but it is good enough for me right now.
Yeah, to a degree yes. He was elected to political office. He just seems smarmy to me. Like that holier than thou televangelist who's a serial philanderer.
Trump has his warts for sure. But he wears them for everyone to see.
Trump has his warts for sure. But he wears them for everyone to see.
I agree TC comes across very smarmy and I'm not a fan of the televangelist speak. Total agreement. But he's far from establishment. I don't think a single senator has endorsed him. Lindsey Graham actually said this about him the other day, "If you killed Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate, and the trial was in the Senate, nobody would convict you." And he won his home state by ~20%. The people who elected him are happy with the job he's doing.
Three developments that seem like a brokered convention might not happen:
Murdoch: GOP 'would be mad' not to unify around Trump if he's nominee
Media mogul Rupert Murdoch argued Wednesday that Republicans would be "mad" not to rally around Donald Trump should the businessman become the GOP presidential nominee.
Murdoch, who suggested earlier this week that Republicans should "close ranks to fight real enemy," shared a tweet Wednesday saying Trump is "reaching out to make peace" with members of the party.
Trump has feuded with Murdoch's Fox News for months, and last month Murdoch said that the real estate tycoon should "calm down" after he and aides suggested Murdoch was behind unfavorable polling released by his Wall Street Journal.
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...would-be-mad-not-to-unify-around-trump-if-hes
Exclusive: Koch brothers will not use funds to try to block Trump nomination
The Koch brothers, the most powerful conservative mega donors in the United States, will not use their $400 million political arsenal to try to block Republican front-runner Donald Trump's path to the presidential nomination, a spokesman told Reuters on Wednesday.
The decision by the billionaire industrialists is another setback to Republican establishment efforts to derail the New York real estate mogul's bid for the White House, and follows speculation the Kochs would soon launch a "Trump Intervention."
"We have no plans to get involved in the primary," said James Davis, spokesman for Freedom Partners, the Koch brothers’ political umbrella group. He would not elaborate on what the brothers' strategy would be for the Nov. 8 election to succeed Democratic President Barack Obama.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-koch-exclusive-idUSMTZSAPEC32FPEGCF
Report: Marco Rubio Loses Fox; Ailes: ‘We Can’t Do the Rubio Thing Anymore’
In his role as the donor class’s darling, Marco Rubio has enjoyed support from the Republicans’ media arm, Fox News. Throughout the primary, Fox provided Rubio with friendly interviews and key bookings, including the first prime-time response to Barack Obama’s Oval Office address on ISIS. Many of the network’s top pundits, including Stephen Hayes and Charles Krauthammer, have been enthusiastic boosters. Bill Sammon, Fox’s Washington managing editor, is the father of Rubio’s communications director, Brooke Sammon.
But this alliance now seems to be over. According to three Fox sources, Fox chief Roger Ailes has told people he’s lost confidence in Rubio’s ability to win. “We’re finished with Rubio,” Ailes recently told a Fox host. “We can’t do the Rubio thing anymore.”
http://www.breitbart.com/big-journa...fox-ailes-we-cant-do-the-rubio-thing-anymore/
Murdoch: GOP 'would be mad' not to unify around Trump if he's nominee
Media mogul Rupert Murdoch argued Wednesday that Republicans would be "mad" not to rally around Donald Trump should the businessman become the GOP presidential nominee.
Murdoch, who suggested earlier this week that Republicans should "close ranks to fight real enemy," shared a tweet Wednesday saying Trump is "reaching out to make peace" with members of the party.
Trump has feuded with Murdoch's Fox News for months, and last month Murdoch said that the real estate tycoon should "calm down" after he and aides suggested Murdoch was behind unfavorable polling released by his Wall Street Journal.
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...would-be-mad-not-to-unify-around-trump-if-hes
Exclusive: Koch brothers will not use funds to try to block Trump nomination
The Koch brothers, the most powerful conservative mega donors in the United States, will not use their $400 million political arsenal to try to block Republican front-runner Donald Trump's path to the presidential nomination, a spokesman told Reuters on Wednesday.
The decision by the billionaire industrialists is another setback to Republican establishment efforts to derail the New York real estate mogul's bid for the White House, and follows speculation the Kochs would soon launch a "Trump Intervention."
"We have no plans to get involved in the primary," said James Davis, spokesman for Freedom Partners, the Koch brothers’ political umbrella group. He would not elaborate on what the brothers' strategy would be for the Nov. 8 election to succeed Democratic President Barack Obama.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-koch-exclusive-idUSMTZSAPEC32FPEGCF
Report: Marco Rubio Loses Fox; Ailes: ‘We Can’t Do the Rubio Thing Anymore’
In his role as the donor class’s darling, Marco Rubio has enjoyed support from the Republicans’ media arm, Fox News. Throughout the primary, Fox provided Rubio with friendly interviews and key bookings, including the first prime-time response to Barack Obama’s Oval Office address on ISIS. Many of the network’s top pundits, including Stephen Hayes and Charles Krauthammer, have been enthusiastic boosters. Bill Sammon, Fox’s Washington managing editor, is the father of Rubio’s communications director, Brooke Sammon.
But this alliance now seems to be over. According to three Fox sources, Fox chief Roger Ailes has told people he’s lost confidence in Rubio’s ability to win. “We’re finished with Rubio,” Ailes recently told a Fox host. “We can’t do the Rubio thing anymore.”
http://www.breitbart.com/big-journa...fox-ailes-we-cant-do-the-rubio-thing-anymore/
Pretty interesting @NZ Poke.
If Trump gets the nomination, most conservatives will rally behind him. Some like me might have to get dragged along, kicking and screaming.
If Trump gets the nomination, most conservatives will rally behind him. Some like me might have to get dragged along, kicking and screaming.
I lost all my remaining respect for Rubio when he went to the gutter last week. The irony of him calling Trump a petulant child.
I didn't vote for Trump but could get behind him in the general election. I am not convinced he would nominate judges of my liking and I don't like his position on planned parenthood among a few others. No candidate will espouse all his positions exactly as I believe.
Should the establishment continue to sabotage this election it could motivate me to go hunting on election day. Let the process run. If Romney and his fellow establishment political buddies are so concerned they should have thrown their hats into the arena. They didn't so STFU.
I didn't vote for Trump but could get behind him in the general election. I am not convinced he would nominate judges of my liking and I don't like his position on planned parenthood among a few others. No candidate will espouse all his positions exactly as I believe.
Should the establishment continue to sabotage this election it could motivate me to go hunting on election day. Let the process run. If Romney and his fellow establishment political buddies are so concerned they should have thrown their hats into the arena. They didn't so STFU.
This is normal in races that have multiple candidates.
Trump has garnered a lot more votes than either Romney, McCain or Bush after 15 primaries.
