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BOOM! US economy grows 4.1%

lol

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For a long time, the mainstream media has been a never-ending loop of the Curb Your Enthusiasm theme song.


 
Just think how good it would have been if Trump hadn't executed the first round of tariffs and scared the market with more.
 
Can't we see growth as a positive? :) I think America growing is good for all parties.

Yeah. I hope so. We've had a long period of economic expansion and quite a bit of momentum, let's boom.

FWIW, a real estate investor client of mine says the industry is getting a little nervous, as there's some recent housing market stuff in big markets that they think is a canary in a coal mine. Can't tell if that would filter to Okla though, because we're a little insulated. I can't recall when there wasn't a chorus of "Everything's about to go to hell" though. Remember the constant gold and prediction of economic collapse commercials during the Obama admin?
 
Yes, GDP growth is a backward looking indicator, and tariffs will likely be a drag on the economy long term, but it the GDP number for last quarter was high in part because of tariffs not in spite of.

True, but while some exports may have increased due to the tariffs, the first round of tariffs from January were in these numbers and didn't show any significant impact, which is a positive. I'd also note that inventory depletion was actually a drag on the number this quarter, and that's not likely to remain the case. So even if exports and consumer spending decrease some, the next quarter will likely offset that some with increased inventories which should give a solid number for Q3. All told, this is a good number for the president to achieve a 3% Q4/Q4 GDP growth. Something that hasn't been done since before the housing crisis.
 
True, but while some exports may have increased due to the tariffs, the first round of tariffs from January were in these numbers and didn't show any significant impact, which is a positive.
Net export growth contributed a whole 1.1% of the 4.1%

I'd also note that inventory depletion was actually a drag on the number this quarter, and that's not likely to remain the case. So even if exports and consumer spending decrease some, the next quarter will likely offset that some with increased inventories which should give a solid number for Q3. All told, this is a good number for the president to achieve a 3% Q4/Q4 GDP growth. Something that hasn't been done since before the housing crisis.
What about 3% Q1/Q1, Q2/Q2, or Q3/Q3 ?
 
Yeah. I hope so. We've had a long period of economic expansion and quite a bit of momentum, let's boom.

FWIW, a real estate investor client of mine says the industry is getting a little nervous, as there's some recent housing market stuff in big markets that they think is a canary in a coal mine. Can't tell if that would filter to Okla though, because we're a little insulated. I can't recall when there wasn't a chorus of "Everything's about to go to hell" though. Remember the constant gold and prediction of economic collapse commercials during the Obama admin?

So you are saying there will be a downturn in housing prices in the future? Like a business cycle? Hard hitting stuff from the local remax office.
 
Have I had a blind spot in that regard in the past?
I don't know about you specifically, but folks were awfully hard on Obama in the wake of the Great Recession, and people insist on give Donald Trump credit for every piece of good economic news.
 
Net export growth contributed a whole 1.1% of the 4.1%


What about 3% Q1/Q1, Q2/Q2, or Q3/Q3 ?

I believe we are there for Q2/Q2 growth with this number. But I don't set the rules for calculating annualized GDP growth and those rules say Q4/Q4. That's why Obama never actually achieved a 3% annual rate, even though he had some 4% and even one 5% quarter. Besides Trump's only been President for a year and half, and most of his policies have been in place for a year or less. So we are just getting to the point where you can do quarterly, annualized growth measures that reflect his policies.
 
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