Big 12 football tiers: OU at top, Oklahoma State among conference championship contenders
Joe MussattoThe Oklahoman
I try to have fun with my weekly Big 12 tiers column — ranking most impactful transfers, best quarterbacks, guessing which coaches have the highest approval rating, that kind of stuff.
But it’s almost November. Time to get serious.
In this week’s edition of Big 12 tiers, we’re keeping it simple, sorting teams by the only thing that matters: what they’ve done so far.
Tier 1: College Football Playoff contenders
Oklahoma (7-0, 4-0 Big 12)
I don’t know if OU is one of the four best teams in college football, but no team in the country is better set up than the Sooners to make the College Football Playoff.There’s not a ranked opponent remaining on OU’s schedule: at Kansas, at OSU, vs. West Virginia, at BYU, vs. TCU. The Sooners will probably be touchd0wn-plus favorites in each of those games.
Looming, though, is a possible rematch with Texas in the Big 12 title game.
Texas (6-1, 3-1 Big 12)
A one-loss Texas — with a win at Alabama and a revenge victory in Arlington over the Sooners — is almost assured of making the College Football Playoff.The Longhorns will have to overcome the absence of quarterback Quinn Ewers, who’s expected to miss time with an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder.
Texas, even without Ewers, should have no trouble beating BYU this weekend in Austin. But then Texas hosts Kansas State in a game that could have major conference championship game implications.
Tier 2: Big 12 Championship Game contenders
Iowa State (4-3, 3-1 Big 12)
The Cyclones, believe it or not, control their own destiny to the Big 12 Championship Game. If they win out, they’re in.Don’t count on that happening, though. By Big 12 standards, Iowa State has an awfully tough closing schedule: at Baylor, vs. Kansas, at BYU, vs. Texas, at Kansas State.
Oklahoma State (5-2, 3-1 Big 12)
The Cowboys’ in-season turnaround is remarkable.OSU lost its conference opener at Iowa State, but since then the Cowboys have beaten Kansas State, Kansas and West Virginia — all above-average teams in the below-average Big 12.
OSU doesn’t control its own destiny to Arlington because of its head-to-head loss to Iowa State.
Kansas State (5-2, 3-1 Big 12)
Kansas State is ranked No. 14 in the nation in Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings at ESPN. Compare that to Iowa State (No. 38) and OSU (No. 40).Connelly’s rankings are predictive rather than resume-based.
Kansas State, behind OSU in the head-to-head tiebreaker, hosts Iowa State in the season finale. The Wildcats also have to play at Texas and at Kansas.
Tier 3: The glob of no discernible differences
Kansas (5-2, 2-2 Big 12)
The Jayhawks, with or without quarterback Jalon Daniels, are my favorite team of this mediocre bunch.Here’s the case for Kansas: its only losses this season came in Austin and Stillwater, against teams that are a combined 6-2 in the conference. And the Jayhawks’ two Big 12 wins, over BYU and UCF, were both double-digit victories.
West Virginia (4-3, 2-2 Big 12)
Back-to-back losses for the Mountaineers after a 5-1 start.Next up is a trip to UCF. Give me the Knights in an upset … or not. UCF is a 7-point favorite!
BYU (5-2, 2-2 Big 12)
Big 12 home wins against Cincinnati and Texas Tech. Big 12 road losses at Kansas and TCU.Bad news for the Cougars: Their next two games are at Texas and West Virginia.
Good news for the Cougars: They have more Big 12 wins than the other three conference newcomers combined.
Texas Tech (3-5, 2-3 Big 12)
None of Texas Tech’s three conference losses look that bad: at West Virginia, vs. Kansas State, at BYU.Why Texas Tech ahead of Baylor? The Red Raiders smoked the Bears 39-14 in Waco.
Baylor (3-4, 2-2 Big 12)
Baylor is the rare 2-0 road team and 0-2 home team. But it makes sense given their schedule: road wins at UCF and Cincinnati and home losses to Texas and Texas Tech.TCU (4-4, 2-3 Big 12)
The Frogs are coming off a 41-3 loss to Kansas State. Ouch.Tier 4: We’re new here
Houston (3-4, 1-3 Big 12)
I thought Houston was the worst team in the Big 12. It’s no longer fair to say that after the Cougars beat West Virginia and took Texas down to the wire.UCF (3-4, 0-4 Big 12)
The Knights aren’t this bad, especially now that quarterback John Rhys Plumlee is back.After giving the Sooners a scare, I think UCF finally gets its first Big 12 win this weekend against West Virginia.