Berry Tramel's college football picks: Avoid scheduling the Dakotas
- 42 mins ago
Berry Tramel
Sports ColumnistOU’s Southeastern Conference era begins Friday night with Temple coming into Owen Field. Lots of excitement over the likes of Tennessee and Alabama coming to Norman, but first, we’ve got to wade through Temple and Houston. Sort of like starting a Colorado vacation in Walsenburg.
In fact, the Week 1 state spotlight, and the regional spotlight, starts in Stillwater and the Big 12, courtesy of the Dakotas.
OSU hosts South Dakota State, Colorado hosts North Dakota State and Iowa State hosts South Dakota.
The first order of college football scheduling: When you’re signing up the Division I-AA opponent to serve as a literal exhibition and a virtual scrimmage, don’t go anywhere near a team with Dakota in the name.
South Dakota State has won two straight national championships, North Dakota State won nine of the 11 national championships before that and built-by-association South Dakota enters the 2024 season ranked 22nd in the I-AA poll.
This is what-were-they-thinking scheduling. At least Iowa State is a 28½-point favorite over North Dakota. Both OSU and Colorado are just 9½-point favorites over their Dakota nemeses.
A Zero Week game Saturday in Albuquerque illustrates the dangers of playing the Dakota powers. Montana State, ranked fourth in I-AA and a regular in its deep playoff bracket, trailed New Mexico by 17 points in the fourth quarter but stormed back to win 35-31.
I know, I know. It’s New Mexico. And Montana State is neither of the Dakota States.
But the Dakotas have an inherent advantage over most I-AA programs. They believe in themselves. They know how to win. The game in Albuquerque was Exhibit A.
South Dakota State in recent years has beaten Kansas (41-38 in 2015) and lost close games at Iowa (7-3 in 2022), at Minnesota (28-21 in 2019) and at Texas Christian (59-41 in 2018).
Meanwhile, North Dakota State is 6-3 vs. power-conference opponents over the last 18 years. The Fighting Hawks are 2-1 at Minnesota, 1-1 at Iowa State and 1-0 at Iowa, Kansas State and Kansas. In North Dakota State’s most recent game against a I-A opponent, the Hawks lost 31-28 at Arizona.
OU’s playing Maine later in the season. Kansas is playing Lindenwood. Auburn’s playing Alabama A&M. Alabama’s playing Mercer.
Smart scheduling. Don’t mess with the Dakotas.
Let’s get to the predictions of Week 1 games involving the power conferences, plus the American Athletic Conference and the Mountain West:
Temple at Oklahoma: Sooners 62-7. Matt Rhule no longer is coaching the Owls.
South Dakota State at Oklahoma State: Cowboys 38-20. Mike Gundy has done a good job of warning his Cowboys — and every person in the state — that this is not a typical I-AA opponent. OSU should be ready.
Northwestern State of Louisiana at Tulsa: Golden Hurricane 38-10. The last time TU played the Demons, Northwestern State was quarterbacked by Bobby Hebert, who went on to make 100 NFL starts.
Clemson vs. Georgia in Atlanta: Bulldogs 27-14. Georgia is the new Clemson. Does that make Clemson the old Georgia?
Louisiana State vs. Southern Cal in Las Vegas: Trojans 38-31. USC finds an opponent with similar defensive problems, and Miller Moss delivers as the Trojan quarterback.
Notre Dame at Texas A&M: Aggies 27-25. Ags always have had ballplayers. But with Mike Elko replacing Jimbo Fisher as head coach, maybe now A&M has function.
Miami at Florida: Gators 23-20. Both coaches need to win to lessen the heat. Billy Napier outduels Mario Cristobal.
Virginia Tech at Vanderbilt: Hokies 35-16. VPI slowly getting better under Brent Pry.
Colorado State at Texas: Longhorns 48-14. CSU coach Jay Norvell, a longtime Bob Stoops staffer at OU, was on Charlie Strong’s Texas staff in 2015 and called plays.
Old Dominion at South Carolina: Gamecocks 42-19. The Monarchs pulled upsets of Virginia Tech in 2018 and 2022, so beware, Carolina.
Southern Mississippi at Kentucky: Wildcats 44-10. Golden Eagles no longer are an upstart mid-major. They beat Alabama in 2000, 1990 and 1982. But those days are gone.
Western Kentucky at Alabama: Crimson Tide 54-14. WKU becomes the third school that T.J. Finley has quarterbacked against Alabama, joining LSU in 2020 and Auburn. Somehow, Bama didn’t play Texas State in 2023, when Finley was the Bobcats’ QB.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. Arkansas in Little Rock: Razorbacks 64-7. Hogs played UAPB in 2021, the first in-state opponent for Arkansas since World War II.
Alabama A&M at Auburn: Tigers 55-10. Auburn has made a habit in recent years of playing in-state, I-AA opponents. Alabama State, Samford, Jacksonville State, Alabama A&M.
Chattanooga at Tennessee: Volunteers 59-10. The Moccasins are ranked eighth in the preseason I-AA coaches poll…
Furman at Ole Miss: Rebels 59-13. And the Paladins are ranked ninth. But it’s not Furman Dakota.
Eastern Kentucky at Mississippi State: Bulldogs 52-11. Jeff Lebby’s first game coaching in Starkville is on the easy side.
Murray State at Missouri: Tigers 56-6. I know the SEC is going to get exciting, but these kinds of games already are getting old.
Penn State at West Virginia: Nittany Lions 21-18. What a season-changer an upset could be for the Mountaineers.
Nevada-Las Vegas at Houston: Rebels 24-20. Oklahoman Barry Odom had a great first season coaching UNLV; can he keep it going considering his quarterback, Jayden Malava, transferred to Southern Cal?
Texas Christian at Stanford: Horned Frogs 31-13. Cardinal is picked dead last in the 17-team Atlantic Coast Conference.
Wyoming at Arizona State: Cowboys 27-24. Wyoming pulls the upset in a vintage Western Athletic Conference matchup.
North Dakota State at Colorado: Buffaloes 33-27. Thursday night game gives OSU a sneak peek about what could be looming.
New Mexico at Arizona: Wildcats 51-14. Disappointing New Mexico debut for new coach Bronco Mendenhall.
North Dakota at Iowa State: Cyclones 34-10. If you’re going to play a Dakota, at least don’t play a “State.”
Tarleton State at Baylor: Bears 44-11. Tarleton was in the Division II Lone Star Conference as recently as spring 2020.
Southern Illinois at Brigham Young: Cougars 29-10. BYU needs all the wins it can muster; the schedule gets rough very soon.
Tennessee-Martin at Kansas State: Wildcats 51-0. The Associated Press’ Ralph Russo, a veteran of college pressboxes, predicted KSU quarterback Avery Johnson to win the Heisman.
Abilene Christian at Texas Tech: Red Raiders 56-24. Abilene Christian in Lubbock. Tarleton State in Waco. It’s a wonder Texas A&M-Kingsville (the old Texas A&I) isn’t playing in Fort Worth.
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