Are You Doing Anything Different with Your Money

Bitter Creek

Heisman Candidate
Apr 24, 2008
7,507
3,284
113
There is a good chance of chaos in the markets in November.

Is there a way to take advantage of the potential volatility that is coming?
 

Marocain Poke

2nd Team
Silver Member
Sep 1, 2020
641
1,157
93
Tangier, Morocco
Generally it is not a good idea to divest from the stock market for political reasons. Even Carter's presidency resulted in solid average gains in the market for the four years of his presidency. GW Bush however, averaged net losses each year of his eight. If you have had a buy and hold strategy and a long time frame, it could be disastrous to try to time the market, as evidenced by Trump's election in 2016 when it looked like the market was going to tank but rallied yugely.
 

2012Bearcat

Heisman Winner
Gold Member
Oct 30, 2010
14,803
9,977
113
Yes. We have taken some profits and kept the funds in cash. About 35% of our portfolio is sitting in cash waiting to see what takes place with the election. Traditionally it's not a good idea to make financial decisions on politics but these are different times and ones that I haven't seen in my lifetime. If Biden is elected, I fully expect the stock market to take a dive. When you have a candidate saying they will be raising taxes, taking money out of the private sector, stocks have no place to go but down. If Trump is elected we may lose out on a little bit of profit but that is much better than losing our ass.
 
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NeekReevers

Heisman Candidate
Gold Member
Dec 17, 2002
5,489
2,101
113
Yes. We have taken some profits and kept the funds in cash. About 35% of our portfolio is sitting in cash waiting to see what takes place with the election. Traditionally it's not a good idea to make financial decisions on politics but these are different times and ones that I haven't seen in my lifetime. If Biden is elected, I fully expect the stock market to take a dive. When you have a candidate saying they will be raising taxes, taking money out of the private sector, stocks have no place to go but down. If Trump is elected we may lose out on a little bit of profit but that is much better than losing our ass.
This is exactly how I see it. If Trump wins I think the market will continue as is and as is it has plenty of uncertainty. If Biden wins the markets will take a short term hit. I think there is much more downside than upside potential right now.
 

Headhunter

Heisman Winner
Gold Member
May 29, 2001
18,531
8,363
113
Stillwater, OK
Crack whores is a great investment, they have motivation to perform the most amazing range of maneuvers just for a small little treat. It's like rewarding your dog with Pupperonies but with a happy ending.
 
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SUPERPOKES

Heisman Candidate
Gold Member
May 29, 2001
8,838
5,415
113
DFW
Crack whores is a great investment, they have motivation to perform the most amazing range of maneuvers just for a small little treat. It's like rewarding your dog with Pupperonies but with a happy ending.
I’ve found that the medical bills incurred later on far offset the initial gains and benefits.
 

OUSOONER67

All-American
Mar 23, 2004
4,299
11,107
113
Been wiping my butt with Benjamins cause all you bastids hoarded up all the TP.
 

TPOKE

Heisman Candidate
Gold Member
Jul 14, 2001
10,515
4,273
113
I rode out 2009 and kept buying and doing the same now. Up about 10% over where I was before the market went down, and it still hasn't gotten back, consistently, to where it was. When it briefly did it was over a 20% increase.

An older gentlemen I knew years ago said he tried to play the market, buying and selling at the right time, he figured he ended up at the same place where he would have been by just putting money in his retirement on a consistent basis.
 

OKSTATE1

MegaPoke is insane
Gold Member
May 29, 2001
29,591
26,441
113
Edmond, Oklahoma
Each year as I get closer to retirement I now trim back 1% to less riskier investments, I am 6 years away from retirement. I started out 40 years ago at 100% in equities and with a super aggressive portfolio and put anything in the market I could. My portion of my portfolio that is exposed to the market is not overly aggressive right now (by no means grandma portfolio), that is designed to protect against downside risk with as much upside capture ratio, portfolio that projects to do well on the efficient frontier graph. Trimming the hedges each year will protect me in the event the market crashes 6 months before I retire. When you save really early in life and do it consistently it is easier to slowly throttle back as you near retirement and you are not having to chase returns. For those not familiar:

The efficient frontier is the set of optimal portfolios that offer the highest expected return for a defined level of risk or the lowest risk for a given level of expected return.

I put about 10% of my investments in to a annuity recently. It protects me on the first 10% of a market decline based on the contract date, I "only" get 17% of the upside. There are other elections you can make each year as well.

Alianz since then has come out with a product that protects you on the first 20% of a market decline based on the contract date, with no cap on the upside, the difference is the measurement date for the market decline is 3 years from contract date. These products are more expensive, but IMO that is a great tool for a fully diversified portfolio in an environment in which bonds return nothing as well as other investments. Sounds like an investment made for Biden, huh?

I have some cash on the sideline, and blew getting in the market at 19,000 this year, my broker timed it perfect and called me and I could not pull the trigger, it was a once in a lifetime market opportunity I missed, I perhaps am learning as I get older I am more risk adverse.

I am fortunate I am positioned to take advantage of a down market right now and can do it in a way with little risk and great upside. I also have saved well and fortunate to have an annuity work well in a diversified portfolio and should I pass first, give my wife the security of some fixed income for her life.

So, if Biden gets in, and the market falls, I think the annuity represents a great opportunity to be in the market and purchase in a down market, and to limit my risk on the first 20% of the fall of the market, with the potential to get all the upside. If you get in the market for example after it has dropped 10% and unknown to you it will drop 25%, based on when you purchased, that covers you on a 30% drop of the market from the time Biden came in.

Did you know individual balance sheets have never been better in this country? It is true, consumers have not been running up credit card debt and with the government dropping cash from helicopters in stimulus money, as long as Biden does no totally screw up the economy the market will rebound, not like it would under Trump but it will rebound. If Biden and the Dims destroy the economy, they will be out in 4 years. The staunchest of Trump supporters on Wall Street believe that Biden and the Dims are not so stupid to do all the crazy shit the extremists in their party want, it would be political suicide. If the Reps maintain the Senate? Wall Street would like this the best if Biden wins because you will have political grid lock and the oddity of that? That is a stable environment, no change.

The economy is still the #1 issue for voters based on polling, and on this issue it is the single most important issue in the election by 16% of the voters, by far the leading issue, and polling after the debate indicated this as well.
 
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