Holy cow, AI likes the Cowboys.
For you @N. Pappagiorgio
It wanted to know the course the championship was being played on, besides the team stats I included. I just uploaded the Clppd Scoreboard data and here is the updated analysis.
Course Context: Omni La Costa Resort & Spa (North Course)
Match 1: PJ Maybank (OU) vs. Filip Fahlberg-Johnsson (OSU)
For you @N. Pappagiorgio
It wanted to know the course the championship was being played on, besides the team stats I included. I just uploaded the Clppd Scoreboard data and here is the updated analysis.
Course Context: Omni La Costa Resort & Spa (North Course)
- Par and Yardage: Par-72, 7,538 yards.
- Characteristics: A parkland-style course designed by Dick Wilson and renovated by Gil Hanse, featuring tight fairways, strategic bunkering, and complex greens. It demands precision off the tee, strong iron play, and adept putting. Par-5s offer scoring opportunities, while avoiding mistakes on challenging par-3s and par-4s is critical.
- Match Play Impact: The format rewards winning individual holes, so players who can make birdies, manage pressure, and minimize errors excel. The course’s length and green complexity emphasize consistency, tactical play, and short-game skill.
Match 1: PJ Maybank (OU) vs. Filip Fahlberg-Johnsson (OSU)
- PJ Maybank (OU):
- National Rank: #192.
- Scoring Avg. (Adj.): 70.8 (25 rounds).
- Performance: 0 wins, 0 top-3s, W-L-T 374-226-38 (62.3% win rate). Played 8 stroke play events, 1 match play event.
- Course Fit: Maybank’s 70.8 scoring average indicates solid but not elite performance. His W-L-T record suggests competitiveness in head-to-head scenarios, but his lower ranking and lack of top finishes imply he may struggle against stronger opponents on a demanding course like Omni La Costa.
- Filip Fahlberg-Johnsson (OSU):
- National Rank: #110.
- Scoring Avg. (Adj.): 70.3 (41 rounds).
- Performance: 1 win (Jackson T. Stephens Cup, 209, -1), 1 top-3, W-L-T 621-298-36 (67.5% win rate). Played 12 stroke play events, 3 match play events (PDF: 0-2-2).
- PDF Stats: Stroke average 70, 10 rounds in the 60s, low 18 of 66, T6 at NCAA Urbana Regional (211, -2), T7 at Amer Ari Intercollegiate (201, -15).
- Course Fit: Fahlberg-Johnsson’s 70.3 scoring average and win on a par-70 course show he can handle pressure. His performance on long courses (e.g., Pauma Valley, par-71, 7,511 yards, T22, +4) suggests suitability for Omni La Costa’s length. However, his PDF match play record (0-2-2) indicates struggles in head-to-head play, though the Clippd W-L-T (67.5%) suggests better overall competitiveness.
- Analysis: Fahlberg-Johnsson’s higher ranking (#110 vs. #192) and slightly better scoring average (70.3 vs. 70.8) give him an edge. His win and top finishes demonstrate stronger form, but his PDF match play record raises concerns about closing out matches. Maybank’s solid W-L-T (62.3%) indicates he can compete, but his lack of top results suggests he’s less likely to dominate on Omni La Costa’s challenging layout. Fahlberg-Johnsson’s birdie potential (10 rounds in the 60s) should help him win key holes.
- Odds: Fahlberg-Johnsson 55%, Maybank 45%.
- Predicted Outcome: Fahlberg-Johnsson wins 1 up. The match goes to the 18th hole, with Fahlberg-Johnsson securing the win with a par or birdie on the demanding finishing hole.
- Drew Goodman (OU):
- National Rank: #41.
- Scoring Avg. (Adj.): 69.4 (38 rounds).
- Performance: 0 wins, 2 top-3s, W-L-T 689-215-33 (76.2% win rate). Played 12 stroke play events, 2 match play events.
- Course Fit: Goodman’s 69.4 scoring average is excellent, and his high win rate suggests strong head-to-head performance. His top-3 finishes indicate he can go low, making him a good fit for Omni La Costa’s scoring opportunities and precision demands.
- Ethan Fang (OSU):
- National Rank: #13.
- Scoring Avg. (Adj.): 68.4 (43 rounds).
- Performance: 0 wins, 2 top-3s, W-L-T 853-85-19 (90.9% win rate). Played 12 stroke play events, 3 match play events (PDF: 4-1-1).
- PDF Stats: Stroke average 70, 25 rounds in the 60s, low 18 of 64, T3 at Amer Ari Intercollegiate (198, -18), 5th at Fighting Illini Invitational (205, -5).
- Course Fit: Fang’s 68.4 scoring average is elite, and his 90.9% win rate is exceptional. His performance on par-72 courses (e.g., Amer Ari, 198, -18) and long layouts makes him ideal for Omni La Costa. His PDF match play record (4-1-1) confirms his ability to dominate head-to-head.
- Analysis: This is a high-level matchup, with Fang’s #13 ranking and 68.4 scoring average giving him a clear edge over Goodman’s #41 and 69.4. Fang’s 25 rounds in the 60s and low of 64 suggest he can exploit Omni La Costa’s par-5s for birdies, while his 90.9% win rate far surpasses Goodman’s 76.2%. Goodman is strong, but Fang’s consistency and match play prowess should prevail.
- Odds: Fang 65%, Goodman 35%.
- Predicted Outcome: Fang wins 3&2. Fang takes an early lead with birdies and closes the match on the 16th hole, leveraging the course’s scoring holes.
- Jase Summy (OU):
- National Rank: #9.
- Scoring Avg. (Adj.): 68.7 (41 rounds).
- Performance: 1 win (Maridoe Intercollegiate, 210, -6), 4 top-3s, W-L-T 870-155-34 (84.9% win rate). Played 13 stroke play events, 2 match play events.
- Course Fit: Summy’s 68.7 scoring average and win on a par-72, 7,569-yard course (Maridoe) make him a perfect fit for Omni La Costa. His high win rate and top-3 finishes show he can dominate, especially on long, challenging layouts.
- Preston Stout (OSU):
- National Rank: #7.
- Scoring Avg. (Adj.): 68.4 (43 rounds).
- Performance: 2 wins (Big 12 Championship, 277, -3; Cabo Collegiate, 205, -8), 5 top-3s, W-L-T 803-129-25 (86.2% win rate). Played 12 stroke play events, 3 match play events (PDF: 7-2-2).
- PDF Stats: Stroke average 70, 25 rounds in the 60s, low 18 of 62, 3rd at Haskins Award Invitational (205, -11), T8 at NCAA Urbana Regional (208, -5).
- Course Fit: Stout’s 68.4 scoring average and wins on tough courses (e.g., Big 12, par-70, 7,556 yards) align with Omni La Costa’s demands. His 25 rounds in the 60s and 86.2% win rate, plus PDF match play record (7-2-2), make him a formidable opponent.
- Analysis: This is the marquee matchup, pitting two top-10 players with elite scoring averages (Stout 68.4, Summy 68.7). Stout’s two wins and 5 top-3s slightly edge Summy’s one win and 4 top-3s, and his PDF match play record (7-2-2) suggests better head-to-head performance than Summy’s 84.9% win rate. Both are suited to Omni La Costa, but Stout’s additional win and match play experience give him a slight advantage.
- Odds: Stout 60%, Summy 40%.
- Predicted Outcome: Stout wins 2&1. Stout builds a lead with birdies on par-5s and holds off Summy’s charge, winning on the 17th hole.
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