HC's and assistants for a long time have been given 4 and 5 year contracts at the college level, to match the eligibility cycle of the players they recruit. I don't think long-term contracts makes sense anymore unless you have a proven winner in their prime. And if you are going to hand out a LT agreement on a new Coach? He gets less for each year that you normally would pay but provide the added security of a longer contract.
Probably more than ever before, with the current transfer portal rules, you drift in to losing season(s) and the potential damage to your roster can be devastating. The only way to be able to "fix" that, is with a war chest of money for the portal, or you have to hope to hit it big at the HS level and have young players on your roster that are going to have a break out season. The other side of the equation is do coaches need to be terminated?
You would like to think eventually we get to the point the "free agency" issue of college football is solved. It is in the Coaches' best interest to do so, particularly those that are good developers of young players and can program build. That is why we have the current contract structure for coaches.
You have several programs with a win now attitude at all costs, particularly in the SEC. Coaches are going to get fired left and right with so much open free agency. It will look like the NFL in terms of firings. Handing out these long contracts and every 2 or 3 years firing and having a huge buyout? How many cycles will those schools be willing to do that? Will they have so much money they don't care?
Having a GM that can money ball talent and manage what NIL you have is a BFD. We need to hope Kenyatta is one of the best, it might the most important staff position in an open free agency market. AD's that see with clarity - is the problem talent, coaching, or both? They will be very valuable.
We also better hope OSU is "tampering" right now, it is not being enforced, OSU can not afford to put itself at a disadvantage.
Programs like OSU IMO, we really need to invest in a QB and probably will be forced to spend a much higher % of their NIL dollars than say TOSU will have to on a QB. This also means OSU might have to over spend a little to get a really good QB.
Some schools with limited resources might be forced to decide how much do they invest in coaches and how much in NIL? Which will move the needle more currently?
We know more change is coming, and what does it look like? I think we agree the goal is to add some player stability. In the short-term, player instability is probably going to lead to Coaching instability. Colleges are handing out 4 and 5 year contracts when the business cycle for the players is 1 year. If coaches are honest, they really can't plan a roster or try to build one with a 4 - 5 year player business cycle. It is a recipe for eventual failure as a College HC if you are expected to win big every year. The NFL has a much better way of spreading the talent, and NFL Coaches still get fired left and right and they have fewer excuses now than college coaches.
Colorado has addressed this by hiring a HC known to every single football player in America, and a mindset to fully embrace the one year player cycle. Colorado is sacrificing coaching pedigree and ability, and has embraced: You are one and done if you suck. The players have no loyalty, so no loyalty back to the players: Perform or pack your shit. Colorado probably is correct in this mentality, they may lack the overall coaching on their staff. We shall see.
If you are an AD right now you have to be pulling your hair out. Look at UTN, if they end up as bad of record as they might, what happens to their roster and the ability to recruit HS and portal players? Will Joe C be FORCED to fire Vegy and eat that huge buyout? With the money that is at stake, and being a self described blueblood with NC expectations every year, can you afford to fall further behind? Where is their dollars best spent? Coaches or NIL? Even a program like UTN does not have unlimited resources.
The one year business cycle for players is really making life tough for Coaches, AD's, and donors. It is going to be total chaos moving forward if nothing changes and massively expensive to make fast coaching changes with the current industry contract mindset.