Good read!
The Democrats’ Failure to Self-Scout
By
Jim Geraghty
October 30, 2024 9:09 AM
On the menu today: Since 2020, the Democratic Party, from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris to their handlers and staffers and campaign strategists to Capitol Hill, have operated on the assumption that a majority of the public agreed with them and that victory in 2024 just required reminding Americans of everything they didn’t like about Donald Trump. And who knows, if illegal immigration hadn’t surged, if prices hadn’t spiked and inflation hadn’t been the worst it’s been in four decades, if the world weren’t on fire from Lebanon to Ukraine, maybe that would have been enough. But Democrats refused to do any serious “self-scouting” — a hard, unsparing assessment of their own strengths and weaknesses — and now they’re left hoping that the early vote lead for Republicans is a mirage and that their own get-out-the-vote operations will be just enough to keep the blue wall in place.
Democrats’ Faulty Assumptions
Disgraced former North Carolina senator
John Edwards was wrong about a lot of things, but for now let’s focus on the fact that there are really three types of Americans: Republicans, Democrats, and independents. And independents perceive the world considerably closer to the Republican view than the Democratic one.
In July, before Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race,
Gallup found just 4 percent of Republicans approved of the job Biden was doing, and just 31 percent of independents approved of the job he was doing.
But
81 percent of Democrats approved of the job Biden was doing. And that had been the story of Biden’s approval rating throughout his presidency. Republicans never liked him; he started with an 11 percent approval rating among self-identified Republicans. Independents gave him a shot — he started with 61 percent of independents approving of the job he was doing in the opening days of his term — until his approval rating among this demographic took a tumble in the summer of 2021 (hello, Afghanistan withdrawal) and never recovered, lingering in the 31 percent to 41 percent range.
But Democrats always cut Biden an enormous amount of slack. Biden started with
98 percent of Democrats approving of the job he was doing.
You find the same dynamic at work in almost every issue before the public.
In September,
Gallup asked Americans, “Would you say you and your family are better off now than you were four years ago, or are you worse off now?” Just 7 percent of Republicans said they were better off than they were four years ago, and among independents, just 35 percent said they were better off. But among Democrats, 72 percent told the pollster they were better off now than they were four years ago.
In October, Gallup asked Americans, “Do you consider the amount of federal income tax you have to pay as too high, about right or too low?” Unsurprisingly, 68 percent of Republicans and 60 percent of independents said “too high.” But just 37 percent of Democrats said the same.
In August,
Gallup asked Americans, “Do you think businesses, in general, should take a public stance on current events?” Just 22 percent of Republicans answered yes, and just 34 percent of independents answered yes. But 53 percent of Democrats agreed (and that’s down from 75 percent in 2022.)
The most
recent Suffolk/USA Today poll asked respondents how Kamala Harris was performing her duties as vice president. Unsurprisingly, just 4 percent of Republicans said they either strongly approved or approved of her job performance, and 93 percent said they disapproved, with 72 percent saying they strongly disapproved. Among independents, Harris’s numbers were better but not great: 40 percent approved — with just 6 percent strongly approving — and 49 percent disapproved, with 26 percent strongly disapproving.
But it’s almost impossible to find a Democrat who doesn’t approve of the job Harris is doing; 89 percent of Democrats approve, with 37 percent strongly approving, and just 6 percent disapprove, with only 2 percent strongly disapproving.