My Friend, @07Pilt, In Whom I Have Enormous Respect

[Ponca Dan]

Even though I disagree with him more often than not, would probably pooh-pooh what this guy is saying, but I think what he says should be taken very seriously. Full disclosure: this guy is a serious negative buzz kill.

De-Dollarization Just Got Real

A multi-polar world is bad news for the American Empire but great news for gold

rubino.substack.com

 

[2012Bearcat]

If you haven't noticed leftist ignore and discount any negative consequence to the policies they support. When those consequences become reality and their policies blow up in their face, instead of admitting they were wrong they blame those that pointed out the negative consequences.
Need evidence of that, see their reaction to the COVID lockdowns, forced vaccines, inflation and any other number of their failures.

 

[07pilt]

Even though I disagree with him more often than not, would probably pooh-pooh what this guy is saying, but I think what he says should be taken very seriously. Full disclosure: this guy is a serious negative buzz kill.

De-Dollarization Just Got Real

A multi-polar world is bad news for the American Empire but great news for gold

rubino.substack.com

Copy paste? That website is blocked by Google for some security reasons

 

[07pilt]

If you haven't noticed leftist ignore and discount any negative consequence to the policies they support. When those consequences become reality and their policies blow up in their face, instead of admitting they were wrong they blame those that pointed out the negative consequences.
Need evidence of that, see their reaction to the COVID lockdowns, forced vaccines, inflation and any other number of their failures.

Yip yip yip. All you have is thoughtless dogma that you repeat. When challenged on it you abandon it and move on to the next topic.

 

[wyomingosualum]

Copy paste? That website is blocked by Google for some security reasons

De-Dollarization Just Got Real​

A multi-polar world is bad news for the American Empire but great news for gold​

John Rubino
Mar 27
65
26

Since the 1970s it’s been virtually impossible for a country to function without access to US dollars. And Washington maintained this highly-favorable status quo by putting various kinds of pressure — from sanctions to election theft to outright invasion — on anyone who stepped out of line.
This weaponization of the world’s reserve currency has, not surprisingly, created resentment in a lot of foreign capitals. And after a long gestation period, that resentment is now erupting into a rebellion against dollar hegemony. Among the big recent events:
The BRICS coalition has become the hottest ticket in geopolitics. Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (the BRICS) have been toying with the idea of forming a political/monetary counterweight to U.S. dominance since 2001. But beyond some aggressive gold buying by Russia and China, there was more talk than action.


Then the floodgates opened. Whether due to the pandemic’s supply chain disruptions, heavy-handed sanctions imposed by US-led NATO during the Russia-Ukraine war, or just the fact that de-dollarization was an idea whose time had finally come, the BRICS alliance has suddenly become the hottest ticket in town. In just the past year, Argentina, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Mexico, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Egypt have either applied to join or expressed an interest in doing so. And new bilateral trade deals that bypass the dollar are being discussed all over the place.

Combine the land mass, population, and natural resources of the BRICS countries with those of the potential new members and the result is more or less half the world. And now things are getting real:

China brokers a peace deal between Saudia Arabie and Iran, two bitter historical enemies who want to join the BRICS alliance but can’t if they’re in an undeclared war. Should they stop competing and start cooperating they could dominate the Middle East and raise China’s clout in the region, at the petrodollar’s expense. An example of the press coverage:

Eurasia’s geo-economic integration took a great leap forward as a result of the Iranian–Saudi rapprochement, which unlocks the Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) trade potential with Russia and China. Its wealthy members can now tap into two series of Iranian-transiting megaprojects in one fell swoop through this deal, with the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC) connecting them to Russia while the China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor (CCAWAEC) will do the same vis-à-vis China...
…Only two weeks after Saudi Arabia announced an effort to establish diplomatic ties to Iran in a deal mediated by China, more news surfaced that Saudi Arabia was also planning to reopen its embassy in Syria for the first time in over a decade. Rumors are swirling that Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria are on the verge of geopolitical and economic agreements that sidestep the US.

 

[wyomingosualum]

Russia and India agree to trade oil for rupees. Russia is now India’s largest oil supplier, with 35% of that massive, growing country’s imports. The U.S. is not happy about this — but India doesn’t seem to care. From a recent article:

Even the US itself seems to have finally accepted that it can’t reverse this trend, which is evidenced by former Indian Ambassador to Russia Kanwal Sibal recently telling TASS that “Lately, the discourse from Washington has changed and India is no longer being asked to stop buying oil from Russia. In a recent visit to India, the US Treasury Secretary actually said that India can buy discounted oil from Russia as much as it wants so long as western tankers and insurance companies are not used.”

African leaders travel to Moscow. Representatives of 40 African nations traveled to Rissia for the Second International Parliamentary Conference “Russia – Africa in a Multipolar World.” According to the press release, the attendees:

… discussed the potential for collaboration across a range of sectors, their contribution to the African continent’s economy and security, and their work in the realms of science and education, politics, and techno-military area.
During the conference, the African continent was invited to work together to form a new multipolar world order. This is especially important given the significant human resources of Africa, which is home to more than 1.5 billion people and has enormous mineral reserves in its soil.

Brazil and Argentina announce a common currency. In February, the two dominant Latin American economies announced plans for a common currency called the “sur” for use in bilateral trade. South America is a big, resource-rich place with numerous grudges against its intrusive northern neighbor. So a de-dollarization movement there, while not as immediately consequential as what’s happening in the Middle East or Asia, is both plausible and potentially serious for the dollar.

Lower Dollar, Higher Gold
​

Even in an emerging multi-polar world, there’s no obvious replacement for the deep, liquid US capital markets. So the dollar won’t disappear from global trade. However:

• If the BRICS have the commodities and the US and its allies are left with finance, pricing power for crucial things like oil and gold will shift to Russia, China, and the Middle East.
• Falling demand for dollar-denominated bonds as reserve assets will send trillions of dollars now outside the US back home, raising domestic prices (which is to say lowering the dollar’s purchasing power and exchange rate).
• The loss of its weaponized reserve currency will lessen the US’ ability to impose its will on the rest of the world (witness China as Middle-East peacemaker and India buying Russian oil with rupees).

To sum up, tomorrow’s world is multi-polar, and for the US and its allies, inflationary. That means a commodities bull market — at least in dollar terms — and extreme financial instability as the US Empire is forced to live within its means. It won’t be pretty but for gold bugs and commodity bulls, it might be extremely profitable.

I’ll leave you with this:


Wall Street Silver @WallStreetSilv
First CNN does a segment on de-dollarization, now Fox News also. What is going on here? 🔊
1:04 PM ∙ Mar 27, 2023

 

[07pilt]

Gracias!

 

[aix_xpert]

Its ironic but the Ukraine War showed the economic truth of the power of currency demand. When the war started, the West's response was sanctions against Russia aimed to prevent their access to the US Dollars needed to perform global trade. This tanked the Ruble and for 3 days there were stories about how these sanctions would cripple the Russian economy. Russia responded by requiring all energy contracts to be paid in Rubles. Suddenly there was a global demand for Rubles, and the Ruble actually became MORE valuable than it was before the war had started. It has since stabilized back to its pre-war value, and its clear that the sanctions had minimal economic impact to Russia.

As countries move away from using the US dollar for global trading, as highlighted in the original post, the US dollar will weaken in value as the global demand for those dollars will have lessened. If you are an exporter, this is good, as your goods become cheaper for international buyers. But for a country like America, that is a net importer of goods, a weaker dollar would be inflationary as those same dollars no longer buy as many foreign goods.

 

[07pilt]

Even though I disagree with him more often than not, would probably pooh-pooh what this guy is saying, but I think what he says should be taken very seriously. Full disclosure: this guy is a serious negative buzz kill.

De-Dollarization Just Got Real

A multi-polar world is bad news for the American Empire but great news for gold

rubino.substack.com

Dan, this guy is a gold grifter.

Let's indulge him for a moment and say that it is possible to get foreigners to trade in their dollar holdings for other currencies by using other currencies as the medium of exchange for trade (his causality is reversed here). Which country do you suppose will pursue this strategy? Think about what is involved in replacing dollar holdings with your own currency. You would need to run massive trade deficits in proportion to your GDP which will come as a double shock to your economy since all the candidates for replacing the dollar currently run large trade surpluses.

Does china want to abandon it's export led economy and plunge a good portion of its population into unemployment? I doubt it but if for whatever reason it does they can consult with this Rubino fellow about how they can achieve that by using yuan to buy oil.

 

[07pilt]

Its ironic but the Ukraine War showed the economic truth of the power of currency demand. When the war started, the West's response was sanctions against Russia aimed to prevent their access to the US Dollars needed to perform global trade. This tanked the Ruble and for 3 days there were stories about how these sanctions would cripple the Russian economy. Russia responded by requiring all energy contracts to be paid in Rubles. Suddenly there was a global demand for Rubles, and the Ruble actually became MORE valuable than it was before the war had started. It has since stabilized back to its pre-war value, and its clear that the sanctions had minimal economic impact to Russia.

As countries move away from using the US dollar for global trading, as highlighted in the original post, the US dollar will weaken in value as the global demand for those dollars will have lessened. If you are an exporter, this is good, as your goods become cheaper for international buyers. But for a country like America, that is a net importer of goods, a weaker dollar would be inflationary as those same dollars no longer buy as many foreign goods.

Ruble tanked because people didn't understand economics. Russia was set to run an extreme trade surplus due to tighter controls on exports to Russia. A strong ruble is still pretty useless if it is because exchange goods or currencies for rubles is tightly restricted.

 

[Ponca Dan]

Dan, this guy is a gold grifter.

Let's indulge him for a moment and say that it is possible to get foreigners to trade in their dollar holdings for other currencies by using other currencies as the medium of exchange for trade (his causality is reversed here). Which country do you suppose will pursue this strategy? Think about what is involved in replacing dollar holdings with your own currency. You would need to run massive trade deficits in proportion to your GDP which will come as a double shock to your economy since all the candidates for replacing the dollar currently run large trade surpluses.

Does china want to abandon it's export led economy and plunge a good portion of its population into unemployment? I doubt it but if for whatever reason it does they can consult with this Rubino fellow about how they can achieve that by using yuan to buy oil.

I think you sabotage your own credibility when you accuse someone who has a different opinion on the matter as being a "grifter." I do appreciate, however, your attempt to refute what he said after you maligned his character. But like I said I was pretty sure you would pooh-pooh his analysis.

 

[07pilt]

I think you sabotage your own credibility when you accuse someone who has a different opinion on the matter as being a "grifter." I do appreciate, however, your attempt to refute what he said after you maligned his character. But like I said I was pretty sure you would pooh-pooh his analysis.

For real Dan. Check his website dollarcollapse.com he is a bonafide gold grifter.

If you have genuine interest in the topic, this is pretty much the state of the art: Excess returns on net foreign assets: the exorbitant privilege from a global ... https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1158.pdf

 

[Ponca Dan]

For real Dan. Check his website dollarcollapse.com he is a bonafide gold grifter.

If you have genuine interest in the topic, this is pretty much the state of the art: Excess returns on net foreign assets: the exorbitant privilege from a global ... https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1158.pdf

A person who advocates for a gold standard is a gold grifter? Your idea of a gifter has a very low bar, my friend.

 

[22LR]

Gheyist Thread Title of 2023 Award.

 

[Ponca Dan]

For real Dan. Check his website dollarcollapse.com he is a bonafide gold grifter.

If you have genuine interest in the topic, this is pretty much the state of the art: Excess returns on net foreign assets: the exorbitant privilege from a global ... https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1158.pdf

My interest in the subject does not include ruining my already damaged eyesight on a 49 page paper with print so small I can't see it. I am impressed with your willingness to wade through it without wanting to jump out of a tree into oncoming traffic, however. It's part of the reason I hold you in esteem.

 

[07pilt]

A person who advocates for a gold standard is a gold grifter? Your idea of a gifter has a very low bar, my friend.

No a person who perpetually claims a dollar collapse is just around the corner so that he can sell you gold and silver and collect a commission is a grifter.

 

[07pilt]

My interest in the subject does not include ruining my already damaged eyesight on a 49 page paper with print so small I can't see it. I am impressed with your willingness to wade through it without wanting to jump out of a tree into oncoming traffic, however. It's part of the rason I hold you in esteem.

Dan you can adjust the text size!

 

[Ponca Dan]

Dan you can adjust the text size!

That's my excuse for not reading it and I'm sticking with it!

 

[Ponca Dan]

No a person who perpetually claims a dollar collapse is just around the corner so that he can sell you gold and silver and collect a commission is a grifter.

The linked article has no sales pitch for me to buy gold from him. People have been claiming the dollar is on the verge of collapse for as long as I can remember, but I don't think I have ever taken them as seriously as I do now. The American hegemony with the dollar looks to me to be hanging by a thread. For what it's worth I hope you are right and I am wrong.

 

[SquatchinPoke]

That's my excuse for not reading it and I'm sticking with it!

 

[07pilt]

The linked article has no sales pitch for me to buy gold from him. People have been claiming the dollar is on the verge of collapse for as long as I can remember, but I don't think I have ever taken them as seriously as I do now. The American hegemony with the dollar looks to me to be hanging by a thread. For what it's worth I hope you are right and I am wrong.

That's his substack. Try his website dollarcollapse.com

Get your foreign vacations in now while you can Dan

 

[Ponca Dan]

That's his substack. Try his website dollarcollapse.com

Get your foreign vacations in now while you can Dan

The OP is a sole reference to his Substack article. I don't give a whit about his website. I even mentioned at the beginning the guy is a buzz kill. As far as him buying or selling gold on his website, that's up to someone who wants to deal with him. I'm strictly interested in what he wrote in this opinion piece, an opinion I think Americans should take seriously.

 

[07pilt]

The OP is a sole reference to his Substack article. I don't give a whit about his website. I even mentioned at the beginning the guy is a buzz kill. As far as him buying or selling gold on his website, that's up to someone who wants to deal with him. I'm strictly interested in what he wrote in this opinion piece, an opinion I think Americans should take seriously.

An opinion generated to further his gold his gold grift

 

[Ponca Dan]

An opinion generated to further his gold his gold grift

Yeah, we're just talking past each other now. I don't care what is his purported motivation. I'm aware he's trying to cash in on his opinion. I do the same thing when I tell people a central vacuum is vastly superior to a portable or a robot, which is a true opinion, but is expressed for the purpose of getting them to buy a central vac from me. Either the opinion has validity or it doesn't. The situation in the world today convinces me his opinion has validity.

 

[07pilt]

Yeah, we're just talking past each other now. I don't care what is his purported motivation. I'm aware he's trying to cash in on his opinion. I do the same thing when I tell people a central vacuum is vastly superior to a portable or a robot, which is a true opinion, but is expressed for the purpose of getting them to buy a central vac from me. Either the opinion has validity or it doesn't. The situation in the world today convinces me his opinion has validity.

I would also be skeptical of a central vacuum salesman's opinion on central vacuums, and would require more evidence and reason than if I heard the same from just a satisfied customer. This Rubino guy presents zero analysis and just a littany of cherry picked headlines.

 

[Ponca Dan]

I would also be skeptical of a central vacuum salesman's opinion on central vacuums, and would require more evidence and reason than if I heard the same from just a satisfied customer. This Rubino guy presents zero analysis and just a littany of cherry picked headlines.

Forget this Rubino guy, whom I have never heard of before, let's concentrate on your lack of understanding how persuasive I am when selling someone on buying a central vacuum!

 

[07pilt]

Forget this Rubino guy, whom I have never heard of before, let's concentrate on your lack of understanding how persuasive I am when selling someone on buying a central vacuum!

You must be very persuasive in order to have made a living from it.

 

[Ponca Dan]

You must be very persuasive in order to have made a living from it.

I'm the Harold Hill of vacuums! "You've got trouble my friends. Right here in River City. That starts with T and that rhymes with D and that stands for Dirt! Right here in River City!."

 

[Tulsaaggieson]

Forget this Rubino guy, whom I have never heard of before, let's concentrate on your lack of understanding how persuasive I am when selling someone on buying a central vacuum!

Now we are talking Capitalism vs Communism. This thread just got interesting!

 

[2012Bearcat]

Yip yip yip. All you have is thoughtless dogma that you repeat. When challenged on it you abandon it and move on to the next topic.

Bless you heart. I learned a long time ago debating with closed minded people with visions of grandeur is a waste of time. Better to give them enough rope to hang themselves.

 

[2012Bearcat]

Its ironic but the Ukraine War showed the economic truth of the power of currency demand. When the war started, the West's response was sanctions against Russia aimed to prevent their access to the US Dollars needed to perform global trade. This tanked the Ruble and for 3 days there were stories about how these sanctions would cripple the Russian economy. Russia responded by requiring all energy contracts to be paid in Rubles. Suddenly there was a global demand for Rubles, and the Ruble actually became MORE valuable than it was before the war had started. It has since stabilized back to its pre-war value, and its clear that the sanctions had minimal economic impact to Russia.

As countries move away from using the US dollar for global trading, as highlighted in the original post, the US dollar will weaken in value as the global demand for those dollars will have lessened. If you are an exporter, this is good, as your goods become cheaper for international buyers. But for a country like America, that is a net importer of goods, a weaker dollar would be inflationary as those same dollars no longer buy as many foreign goods.

This is not rocket science it's common sense but because it's a Democrat in the White House the leftist have to ignore reality to defend the moron they voted for.

 

[07pilt]

Yip yip yip

 

[iasooner2000]

Hello?

 

[aix_xpert]

Ruble tanked because people didn't understand economics. Russia was set to run an extreme trade surplus due to tighter controls on exports to Russia. A strong ruble is still pretty useless if it is because exchange goods or currencies for rubles is tightly restricted.

Who didn't understand economics? Janet Yellen? The rest of the Biden administration? Well, you won't get an argument from me there.

A strong Ruble is a big component of why energy prices spiked with the war. Europe still had to buy that energy. But suddenly the dollars and Euros they were spending weren't going as far.

 

[07pilt]

Who didn't understand economics? Janet Yellen? The rest of the Biden administration? Well, you won't get an argument from me there.

I would bet Janet Yellen knew quite well that the purpose of sanctions wasn't to lower the value of the ruble. Can't say I'm as confident in Brandon.

A strong Ruble is a big component of why energy prices spiked with the war. Europe still had to buy that energy. But suddenly the dollars and Euros they were spending weren't going as far.

No it is not. Energy prices spiked in anticipation of a shortage. At its absolute peak the ruble was .018 USD vs .013 USD prior to the conflict

 

[aix_xpert]

I would bet Janet Yellen knew quite well that the purpose of sanctions wasn't to lower the value of the ruble. Can't say I'm as confident in Brandon.

I wouldn't. Janet "transitionary' Yellen has more than proven that she is an economic neophyte so I fully doubt she knew better. She promised "Maximum Pain" to Russia via our sanctions which sounds like she was expecting the Ruble to be impacted. Whether you go backwards to her time with the Fed, or you listen to her current comments on SVB, its clear, the next time she sounds competent will be her first.

As for Biden, he probably would have understood this 20 or 30 years ago, but he's well past any state of mental capacity to comprehend global economics. He's just a shill to do and say what his handlers tell him.

No it is not. Energy prices spiked in anticipation of a shortage. At its absolute peak the ruble was .018 USD vs .013 USD prior to the conflict

You don't think the 40% increase in the Ruble contributed to the higher energy costs? It wasn't the only factor in the rise in energy prices, but it was a factor.

 

[07pilt]

I wouldn't. Janet "transitionary' Yellen has more than proven that she is an economic neophyte so I fully doubt she knew better.

Yes dude, the neophyte here is Janet Yellen

She promised "Maximum Pain" to Russia via our sanctions which sounds like she was expecting the Ruble to be impacted.

No. Only a neophyte would expect sanctions pain transmission to be through the currency valuation channel.

Whether you go backwards to her time with the Fed, or you listen to her current comments on SVB, its clear, the next time she sounds competent will be her first.

Coming from you I am sure that really hurts her feelings

You don't think the 40% increase in the Ruble contributed to the higher energy costs? It wasn't the only factor in the rise in energy prices, but it was a factor.

No because payment was in euros. https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/europe-to-pay-for-russian-gas-in-rubles-9141397/