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ASOIAF theory (spoilers included)

Been Jammin

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Jun 27, 2003
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I know there are a lot of ASOIAF fans that read this board. I was reading a site where they discuss the books and came across a theory that I had never thought about, but which now makes a lot of sense to me. I figured I would bring it here for discussion. Maybe all of you will read this and think "duh, how did that not occur to you before". We shall see.

Basically, the whole point of the discussion was that Jon Snow currently has the best claim to the throne in Westeros. (this, of course, assumes that Snow is still alive or is brought back to life).

As I have read the books, I have always thought that an argument could be made that Dani, Aegon (young Griff) and Stannis are the 3 people who have the only legit claims to the throne. (You might include Tommen under the paradigm that possession is 9 tenths of the law).

It never really occurred to me that Jon Snow could figure into the conversation. I have always assumed that he is the son of Rhaegar Targaryean and Lyanna Stark, and that the fact he has Targ blood would play a key role in the future. But, I never thought about a scenario where he ends up sitting the iron throne in the end.

The basis of this discussion falls along the lines of the theory that Rhaegar married Lyanna and took her as a second wife, or considered himself somehow "divorced" from Ellia Martel, and married Lyanna as his only "current" wife. She later became pregnant and gave birth to Jon Snow.

Breaking down the rule of inheritance, in Westeros, as have been delineated by GRRM. When Jaime killed the Mad King, Rhaegar became king of Westeros. But, shortly thereafter, Rhaegar was killed by Robert B. The rule would then pass to Rhaegar's children before it would fall to the Mad King's other children (Danarys/Viserys). We know that Rhaegar had 2 kids. A daughter, Rhaenys, who was killed by the Mountain. A son, Aegon, who may or may not have been killed by the Mountain. (Either he really was killed and Aegon is an imposter, or an imposter was killed and Aegon is who he claims to be).

If Rhaegar had a 3rd legitimate child (Jon), he would be the rightful king if Aegon is proved to be an imposter, or if Aegon dies. I suspect that one of those 2 outcomes will come to fruition.

So, the question becomes, how can Jon be a legitimate child. I don't know the answer to that, but I do believe that Rhaegar considered him his heir. If you go back and read the conversation between Ned Stark and Sir Arthur Dayne, which took place at The Tower of Joy, it is pretty clear that the 3 Kingsguard who are at the tower, protecting Lyanna (and her recently born baby?) think that they are doing what they are doing as part of their responsibilities as Kingsguard.
See this essay for a good breakdown. https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/3d8817/spoilers_all_reading_between_the_lines_at_the/
It clearly makes sense that Dayne and his 2 buddies think they are protecting the rightful king (because, they believe that Arys, Rhaegar, Rhaenys and Aegon are already dead.).

That's it. Just some food for thought, but a theory that makes more and more sense the more I think about it.
 
I have thought this was the reason Ned wanted him to join the Nights Watch so bad. Also the reason why not letting anyone know Jon wasn't Ned's kid because then Robert might have him killed.
 
I have thought this was the reason Ned wanted him to join the Nights Watch so bad. Also the reason why not letting anyone know Jon wasn't Ned's kid because then Robert might have him killed.

Makes sense, and I agree. I always thought that just having Targ blood would be enough for Robert to want him killed (as Robert proved in GOT). But, him being the "rightful king" takes it to a whole different level. When Ned brought him back to Winterfell, he was not only protecting him from potential enemies, but also protecting Westeros from war, as the baby would have a lot of enemies who wanted him dead and a lot of supporters who wanted him to eventually sit the iron throne.

As you pointed out, if he joined the NW before his identity was revealed, he would take the oath and no longer have any claim to the throne, which would placate both factions.
 
Makes sense, and I agree. I always thought that just having Targ blood would be enough for Robert to want him killed (as Robert proved in GOT). But, him being the "rightful king" takes it to a whole different level. When Ned brought him back to Winterfell, he was not only protecting him from potential enemies, but also protecting Westeros from war, as the baby would have a lot of enemies who wanted him dead and a lot of supporters who wanted him to eventually sit the iron throne.

As you pointed out, if he joined the NW before his identity was revealed, he would take the oath and no longer have any claim to the throne, which would placate both factions.

Also I thought this was why they had a character like Aemon at the Nights Watch. I kinda feel like he is a tell to who Jon Snow really is.
 
Makes sense, and I agree. I always thought that just having Targ blood would be enough for Robert to want him killed (as Robert proved in GOT). But, him being the "rightful king" takes it to a whole different level. When Ned brought him back to Winterfell, he was not only protecting him from potential enemies, but also protecting Westeros from war, as the baby would have a lot of enemies who wanted him dead and a lot of supporters who wanted him to eventually sit the iron throne.

As you pointed out, if he joined the NW before his identity was revealed, he would take the oath and no longer have any claim to the throne, which would placate both factions.
I'm not clear on where you stand with regards to Jon being a legitimate heir? What evidence do we have that he's not simply a bastard lovechild of two high-born people? Is there some evidence that they ever married? Wouldn't that impact his claim?
 
I'm not clear on where you stand with regards to Jon being a legitimate heir? What evidence do we have that he's not simply a bastard lovechild of two high-born people? Is there some evidence that they ever married? Wouldn't that impact his claim?

That is really the crux of the discussion. If you read the linked passage from GOT....it is pointed out that the 3 Kingsguard, who ended up being killed by Ned, Howland Reed and 5 other guys (who also died), believe that they are where they should be, doing their duty as members of the Kingsguard. Ned is wondering why they were not with Rhaegar when Robert killed him on the Trident. Ned is wondering why they are not with the other member of the Kingsguard who is sneaking Viserys and Dani to safety. The only explanation for them feeling that they are where they should be is that they feel they are guarding the king.

It would be one thing if they (Dayne is speaking for all 3 of them) were saying, "Yeah, we should be somewhere else, but we were ordered to this silly job". But, Dayne's answers suggest that they feel they are doing the duty that they swore to uphold.

So, this means that they feel the baby is the legitimate heir to the throne. What we don't know, is why they feel this way. I suspect that GRRM will explain this in one of the remaining 2 books. There are any number of explanations that would put the baby ahead of Dani as the most deserving to rule. Here are a few possible explanations.
-Rhaegar secretly married Lyanna before he married Ellia of Dorne.
-Rhaagar and Elia somehow dissolved their marriage, and then he later married Lyanna
-Elia was already killed by the Mountain, before Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna and married her then impregnated her.
-Rhaegar believes in polygamy and thinks that children of his second wife are legitimate. He somehow convinces his Kingsguard that his beliefs are legitimate
-Rhaegar was the king for a short time after Arys died. While King, he legitimized the baby and made him no longer a bastard
-Something else I have not thought of.

In summary. I always assumed that Jon is a bastard and that the big reveal was going to be that he has Targ blood. However, it now seems likely (to me) that the big reveal will be that he is the rightful ruler of Westeros, with the best claim to the throne (among those that are living when the story ends).
 
His claim is kind of pointless though right? How we he prove any of it?
 
His claim is kind of pointless though right? How we he prove any of it?

Good point. I would counter that all it takes is for the story to be believable to the general populace. The situation is no different than the situation with Aegon (young Griff). His supporters (Connington, the Gold Company, etc) seem to believe that once he reveals who he is, a large percentage of the population will rally to his cause because they either wish the Targs were still in power, dislike the Baratheon;s, or think that Tommen is born of incest. Viserys and Dani were/are making plans based upon the same line of thinking.

There is no way Aegon can prove he is who he thinks he is. Ultimately, I expect that either he will die, or the conspiracy to pass him off as a Targ will be proven to be a conspiracy.

Since I started reading the books, I have felt strongly that the reason that Benjen disappeared and the reason that we have yet to see Howland Reed is that they are 2 people who would be in position to know the truth about Jon's origins, and they will be instrumental in revealing Jon's backstory. It will be interesting to see if there is any kind of proof to corroborate whatever it is that they claim.
 
Good point. I would counter that all it takes is for the story to be believable to the general populace. The situation is no different than the situation with Aegon (young Griff). His supporters (Connington, the Gold Company, etc) seem to believe that once he reveals who he is, a large percentage of the population will rally to his cause because they either wish the Targs were still in power, dislike the Baratheon;s, or think that Tommen is born of incest. Viserys and Dani were/are making plans based upon the same line of thinking.

There is no way Aegon can prove he is who he thinks he is. Ultimately, I expect that either he will die, or the conspiracy to pass him off as a Targ will be proven to be a conspiracy.

Since I started reading the books, I have felt strongly that the reason that Benjen disappeared and the reason that we have yet to see Howland Reed is that they are 2 people who would be in position to know the truth about Jon's origins, and they will be instrumental in revealing Jon's backstory. It will be interesting to see if there is any kind of proof to corroborate whatever it is that they claim.
So all that's missing is who would bring forth these truths and any claim Jon could hypothetically have to the throne. There's literally no one in Westeros who could. Varys bailed and probably will ally with Dany, and the other two are both marginal in stature and likely dead.

There's just no vehicle within the storyline for this claim to happen. Hell, Jon didn't want to be Lord Commander, you see him wanting the Iron Throne? I don't.
 
So all that's missing is who would bring forth these truths and any claim Jon could hypothetically have to the throne. There's literally no one in Westeros who could. Varys bailed and probably will ally with Dany, and the other two are both marginal in stature and likely dead.

There's just no vehicle within the storyline for this claim to happen. Hell, Jon didn't want to be Lord Commander, you see him wanting the Iron Throne? I don't.

On your last point. Who knows what Jon will be like if he died and is brought back to life? I don't see him wanting to be king, but I could see him eventually being convinced to take the position because it is the best chance at unifying the realm and getting all factions on the same page to combat the White Walkers.

As to your first point, it is not out of the realm of possibilities that there is some proof out there somewhere. Maybe Howland Reed has something in his possession that will corroborate the story.. Maybe there is some form of proof locked in the vault beneath the Citadel. It could be anything.

It might not take anymore than someone circulating the story throughout Westeros, followed by Jon jumping on the back of one of Dani's dragons, convincing everyone that he is truly Rhaegar's son. That might be enough to convince everyone that the rumors are true.

Then again, the endgame may, in fact, be that Jon has Targ blood and this theory about him being next in line for the throne may be a total reach.
 
Why do we think Howland Reed is dead? I like the theory that he is the High Septon, which gives him a lot of things to help Jon's cause, namely an army in King's Landing and a whole boatload of stature.
 
Why do we think Howland Reed is dead? I like the theory that he is the High Septon, which gives him a lot of things to help Jon's cause, namely an army in King's Landing and a whole boatload of stature.

Totally agree. Who thinks HR is dead? I have no doubt that he will appear in the next or last book, and have always liked the theory that he is the High Septon. Maybe he has some evidence that supports Jon's claim. We know he was at the Tower of Joy. Maybe there was a document there, or something else that proves Jon is Rhagar's son and shows that he is legitimate, rather than a lovechild of 2 highborns.

After thinking about previous posts, in this thread, I am liking the idea that Jon ends up as king more and more. Tons pointed out that he wouldn't want to be king because he didn't even want to be LCOTNW. But, if you think about it, GRRM showed us that Jon would make a great king with Jon's actions as LCOTNW. Jon saw the Wildlings as people, when everyone around him saw them as savages who were inferior to people born south of the wall. Jon took a lot of risks and didn't worry about politics while making the safety of the realm his top priority. This shows the reader that he is not likely to get caught up in playing the games that other rulers have played and will make his decisions based on what is best for the realm and what is best for its people. Not just the Lords and Ladies, but all people of Westeros.

In addition, if we go even further, he would be positioned to have the full support of all of the potential wardens of Westeros. It is very realistic that Rickon would be back in Winterfell and function as Warden of the North. Tyrion could end up back at Casterly Rock as Warden of the West (and already has a fondness for/respect of Jon). Robert Arryn could mature under Sansa's guidance and end up being Warden of the East. He would be a cousin of Jon's and a supporter due to Sansa's influence.
 
Martin has said Reed will make in appearance in the books so no one should think he is dead. The High Septon stuff seems far fetched.

I think Jon Snow's Targ blood will come into play more in some other way (maybe dealing with dragons/fire against the Others).
 
Could just be that the Red Priestess finds Jon just barely alive and burns him knowing he has the blood of a king and something special happens.
 
Could just be that the Red Priestess finds Jon just barely alive and burns him knowing he has the blood of a king and something special happens.

It seems pretty unlikely that Melisandre has any reason to believe that Jon has king's blood.
 
Would he still have kings blood even though Rob has been killed? I know I am reaching here just something I thought of the other day. I was thinking she would know about Rob and his claim of King of the North.
 
Winter is coming. The Iron Throne is trivial by the time it's all said and done. If Jon lives, the question becomes whether he's the reborn guy. King of Westeros is chump change at that point.
 
Winter is coming. The Iron Throne is trivial by the time it's all said and done. If Jon lives, the question becomes whether he's the reborn guy. King of Westeros is chump change at that point.

I agree, that the identity of the King is secondary to figuring out a way to work together and defeat the WW. However, the story is not going to end when the WW are defeated. Most likely, GRRM will leave the reader with some details about what the future holds for the surviving main characters and for Westeros in general. At that point, the identity of the king become more relevant.
 
I know there are a lot of ASOIAF fans that read this board. I was reading a site where they discuss the books and came across a theory that I had never thought about, but which now makes a lot of sense to me. I figured I would bring it here for discussion. Maybe all of you will read this and think "duh, how did that not occur to you before". We shall see.

Basically, the whole point of the discussion was that Jon Snow currently has the best claim to the throne in Westeros. (this, of course, assumes that Snow is still alive or is brought back to life).

As I have read the books, I have always thought that an argument could be made that Dani, Aegon (young Griff) and Stannis are the 3 people who have the only legit claims to the throne. (You might include Tommen under the paradigm that possession is 9 tenths of the law).

It never really occurred to me that Jon Snow could figure into the conversation. I have always assumed that he is the son of Rhaegar Targaryean and Lyanna Stark, and that the fact he has Targ blood would play a key role in the future. But, I never thought about a scenario where he ends up sitting the iron throne in the end.

The basis of this discussion falls along the lines of the theory that Rhaegar married Lyanna and took her as a second wife, or considered himself somehow "divorced" from Ellia Martel, and married Lyanna as his only "current" wife. She later became pregnant and gave birth to Jon Snow.

Breaking down the rule of inheritance, in Westeros, as have been delineated by GRRM. When Jaime killed the Mad King, Rhaegar became king of Westeros. But, shortly thereafter, Rhaegar was killed by Robert B. The rule would then pass to Rhaegar's children before it would fall to the Mad King's other children (Danarys/Viserys). We know that Rhaegar had 2 kids. A daughter, Rhaenys, who was killed by the Mountain. A son, Aegon, who may or may not have been killed by the Mountain. (Either he really was killed and Aegon is an imposter, or an imposter was killed and Aegon is who he claims to be).

If Rhaegar had a 3rd legitimate child (Jon), he would be the rightful king if Aegon is proved to be an imposter, or if Aegon dies. I suspect that one of those 2 outcomes will come to fruition.

So, the question becomes, how can Jon be a legitimate child. I don't know the answer to that, but I do believe that Rhaegar considered him his heir. If you go back and read the conversation between Ned Stark and Sir Arthur Dayne, which took place at The Tower of Joy, it is pretty clear that the 3 Kingsguard who are at the tower, protecting Lyanna (and her recently born baby?) think that they are doing what they are doing as part of their responsibilities as Kingsguard.
See this essay for a good breakdown. https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/3d8817/spoilers_all_reading_between_the_lines_at_the/
It clearly makes sense that Dayne and his 2 buddies think they are protecting the rightful king (because, they believe that Arys, Rhaegar, Rhaenys and Aegon are already dead.).

That's it. Just some food for thought, but a theory that makes more and more sense the more I think about it.

OK, I haven't read anything but the OP yet. I missed this with may annual July-distraction, so I'm just catching up.

That said, I threw out the same theory one summer, and the basic response here was (a) rightful heir is irrelevant (with which I agree) and (b) he's still a bastard whether she lived him or not.

I've always believed Lyanna eloped with Rhaegar. Taking a second wife would mean nothing to a Targaryen before Baelor, and little to to one such as Rhaegar after him.

Besides, kidnapping Lyanna Stark? Please. That'd be akin to kidnapping Arya. Good luck with that. Better kill her first.

Rhaegar didn't convince The Sword of the Morning and the White Bull to stick around at the Tower of Joy to guard his bastard and his mistress. They know full well the child is full Targaryen, and what's more so does Ned before it's over. That's why he has so much respect for them. That's why he stops at Starfall on his way home to give the sword to Ashara. That's why he balks every single time Robert begins cursing the Targaryens in front of him, and why he will tolerate no discussion with his friend over the "mother" of his "bastard."
 
Still not caught up, just a quick point.

Rhaegar died before the Mad King. The Trident was done before the Lannisters arrived to sack KL.

I'm not sure where that leaves us with regard to rightful heir between John/Aegon and Viserys/Danerys, but if they're going to get all twitterpatted and start making babies I'm not sure it will matter. The old school Targ move in that situation would be for them to just get married anyway, which is indeed Aegon/Fake Aegon's plan right now (or Varys' plan).
 
Caught up...

Why it might matter... Someone has to unite Westeros to defend itself. Who better? In fact, it's already his duty, and if he has to use his blood to do what is necessary he will.

Blood of a King... Actually, the King in the North legally named John Snow his heir before his death, much to his mother's disappointment. That document may not even be in existence anymore, but I doubt that matters much at all to Melisandre or her magics. Even without the Targ blood he has a legitimate claim to "King in the North."

Proof... There is Howland Reed of course. We know where her body is. Possible she was buried with something that might give evidence if Ned believed Rhaegar married her. Honestly though, no one will need any proof at all beyond the dragons. If Aegon is as fake as I suspect then they will destroy him...
But they won't destroy John anymore than they have Dany. Also... It's possible Dany knows enough to believe it herself at some point. It's possible Melisandre will eventually understand it (her fires are already screaming John's significance at her). It's possible Bran already knows. That's the Old Gods and the Rec God... If the High Septon/Reed theory holds any water then that would be three major religions...
 
King of Westeros will be chump change, agreed. Excepting any ability that title has to unite the Andals, Rhoynar and First Men.

Azor Ahai may matter very much though.

TPTWP may matter very much.

His proof of lineage may matter a great deal to whoever posses Dawn currently, and that sword may matter a great deal itself.
 
Also I thought this was why they had a character like Aemon at the Nights Watch. I kinda feel like he is a tell to who Jon Snow really is.

Spot on.

More "tells" right off the bat for you... John's first conversations with Ned, Benjen and Tyrion.

I think there is still a bastard Targaryen out there. "The dragon has three heads" after all. I think that's probably Tyrion.

So here's another tell... John, Dany, Tyrion... Their mothers all died giving birth to them.
 
Back to proof... I'm guessing there would be quite a bit of proof. The question is what did Ned and Reed do with that proof to protect the secret.
 
Spot on.

More "tells" right off the bat for you... John's first conversations with Ned, Benjen and Tyrion.

I think there is still a bastard Targaryen out there. "The dragon has three heads" after all. I think that's probably Tyrion.

So here's another tell... John, Dany, Tyrion... Their mothers all died giving birth to them.

I totally buy into Tyrion being the third head also. I didn't even catch that first one. I also wonder with Tyrion the fact he didn't get gray scale meant something also.
 
Winter is coming. The Iron Throne is trivial by the time it's all said and done. If Jon lives, the question becomes whether he's the reborn guy. King of Westeros is chump change at that point.

I suspect we're going to learn "Winter is Coming" is not the only repeated words that may hold a piece of what this whole story hinges on.

"Fire and Blood"

"There must always be a Stark in Winterfell"
 
Good stuff TRS

Agree with pretty much all of your points.

As I stated, most of it I had figured out. It had just never occurred to me that a legit argument could be made that Jon is currently the person most deserving of a seat on the Iron throne.
 
Anybody read the Hedge Knight?

I think it's possible Rhaegar married Lyanna during the Tourney at Harrenhal. Aerys sent him out to find the mystery knight. The mystery knight was most likely Lyanna. Rhaegar returned empty handed, but when he won he gives Lyana the laurel. Everyone else believes that's the moment things went down their inevitable path to war. I think he found the mystery knight though and fell for her then, and vice versa. I also think it's possible they were wed before either returned to Harrenhal. It might not require much more than an oath and a weirwood tree and a witness to seal a wedding vow for Lyanna. There are weirwoods on the God's Eye.
 
Well then Bran will be the one to find out the truth if they married in front of a weirwood tree. I am about to read the Hedge Knight books next.

Side note: I read the Ice Dragon and was wondering will the White Walkers have ice dragons or are these a thing of the past?
 
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